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Assumption Lean Regression
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| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The American Statistician |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 75 (No. 1) |
| Halaman | : | 76-84 |
| Abstrak | : | It is well known that with observational data, models used in conventional regression analyses are commonly misspecified. Yet in practice, one tends to proceed with interpretations and inferences that rely on correct specification. Even those who invoke Box’s maxim that all models are wrong proceed as if results were generally useful. Misspecification, however, has implications that affect practice. Regression models are approximations to a true response surface and should be treated as such. Accordingly, regression parameters should be interpreted as statistical functionals. Importantly, the regressor distribution affects targets of estimation and regressor randomness affects the sampling variability of estimates. As a consequence, inference should be based on sandwich estimators or the pairs (x–y) bootstrap. Traditional prediction intervals lose their pointwise coverage guarantees, but empirically calibrated intervals can be justified for future populations. We illustrate the key concepts with an empirical application. |
Disparitas representasi politik: urgensi keterwakilan politisi muda dalam kontestasi politik
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Analisis CSIS |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 52 (No. 2) |
| Halaman | : | 267-287 |
| Abstrak | : | Artikel ini membabas tentang rendahnya keterwakilan anak muda dalam politik di Indonesia dan dampaknya terhadap demokrasi. Meskipun Pasal 28C ayat (2) dan Pasal 28D ayat (3) Undang-Undang Dasar 1945 telah memberikan jaminan bak politik bagi anak muda, tetapi oligarki dan klientelisme politik masih menjadi penghambat akses anak muda dalam melaksanakan bak keterwakilan politiknya. Kondisi ini menciptakan anomali yang disebut sebagai menopause politik. Oleh karena itu, dalam pemilihan umum perlu dilakukan upaya untuk memperkuat partisipasi dan representasi politik anak muda untuk memberikan kesempatan yang lebih besar bagi mereka untuk turut andil dalam partai politik. Dalam bal ini, penulis memiliki gagasan dengan menerapkan formula kebijakan afirmatif berupa kuota keterwakilan politik bagi anak muda dalam pemilihan umum. Dengan menerapkan kebijakan ini, Indonesia dapat menciptakan lingkungan politik yang lebib inklusif dan berkesinambungan untuk pemimpin muda melakukan check and balances terhadap kekuasaan. Melalui pendekatan kualitatif dengan analisis dokumen, penelitian ini menemukan bahwa beberapa negara lain telah menerapkan kebijakan afirmatif tersebut bagi anak muda dan terbukti efektif untuk memastikan bahwa politisi muda memiliki akses yang lebih besar ke lembaga Jegislatif. Para ahli dan pemangku kepentingan juga setuju bahwa kebijakan afirmatif ini dapat membantu memecahkan masalah oligarki di Indonesia yang telah menjadi babaya laten bagi demokrasi. |
Optimizing Sample Size Allocation and Power in a Bayesian Two-Stage Drop-the-Losers Design
| Pengarang | : | Alex Karanevich |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The American Statistician |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 75 (No. 1) |
| Halaman | : | 66-75 |
| Abstrak | : | When a researcher desires to test several treatment arms against a control arm, a two-stage adaptive design can be more efficient than a single-stage design where patients are equally allocated to all treatment arms and the control. We see this type of approach in clinical trials as a seamless Phase II–Phase III design. These designs require more statistical support and are less straightforward to plan and analyze than a standard single-stage design. To diminish the barriers associated with a Bayesian two-stage drop-the-losers design, we built a user-friendly point-and-click graphical user interface with R Shiny to aid researchers in planning such designs by allowing them to easily obtain trial operating characteristics, estimate statistical power and sample size, and optimize patient allocation in each stage to maximize power. We assume that endpoints are distributed normally with unknown but common variance between treatments. We recommend this software as an easy way to engage statisticians and researchers in two-stage designs as well as to actively investigate the power of two-stage designs relative to more traditional approaches. The software is freely available at https://github.com/stefangraw/Allocation-Power-Optimizer. |
Memahami pemilih muda: masaih relevankan memilih politisi muda?
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Analisis CSIS |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 52 (No. 2) |
| Halaman | : | 245-265 |
| Abstrak | : | Dominasi proporsi pemilih muda pada pemilu Indonesia 2024 mendatang masih menjadi premis yang menarik bagi partai politik. Ditengah banyaknya permasalahan orang muda, isu mendasar seperti pendidikan dan kondisi sosio ekonomi masih menjadi momok utama. Dukungan akses pendidikan, kesehatan yang inklusif, ketersediaan hunian, efisiensi pelayanan publik, hingga ketersediaan lapangan pekerjaan perlu diperhatikan. Berbagai isu orang muda menarik perhatian tidak hanya dari sisi perbaikan formulasi kebijakan, tetapi juga menjadi esensial dalam dunia perpolitikan. Di Indonesia sendiri, proporsi pemilih muda mencapai lebih dari 60 persen, keadaan tersebut menjadi target besar bagi partai politik untuk menghadirkan representasi politisi muda guna mengumpulkan suara. Studi ini menginvestigasi preferensi pemilih muda Indonesia terhadap elektabilitas politisi muda. Pendekatan kuantitatif digunakan untuk menganalisis variabel-variabel dalam perilaku politik terkait preferensi pemilih muda mencakup variabel demografi, identifikasi partai politik, dan orientasi politisi yang akan mempengaruhi elektabilitas politisi muda. Data primer (n=400) dikumpulkan melalui survei daring dengan pengambilan sampel non-probabilitas. Hasil analasisi regresi linear berganda menunjuukan bahwa variabel demografi tidak signifikan mempengaruhi elektabilitas politisi pemuda. Sebaliknya, identifikasi partai politik dan isu kandidat politisi muda berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap elektabilitas politisi muda, Temuan ini dapat berfungsi sebagai dasar pembuatan kebijakan tubuh partai politik dalam merancang kebijakan tren kepemudaan yang tidak hanya menghadirkan representasi anak muda, tetapi memperhatikan variabel berpengaruh lainnya guna menghadapi pesta demokrasi 2024 mendatang. |
ASPEK-ASPEK PENGELOLAAN PERMUKIMAN KOTA (STUDI KASUS: KOTA SEMARANG, KEC MLATI BAGANGAN RUSUN PEKUNDEN)
| Pengarang | : | SOESILO RUDYANTO .A |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Pranata |
| Volume / Edisi | : | VI-1, - (No. 0) |
| Halaman | : | 119-132 |
| Abstrak | : | Semarang city where Soegijapranata Catholic University (Unika) is located has been becoming an object of case-studies of Unika's and a filed laboratory as well. For the time being, Unika is doing researches on the city viewed from four different aspects; 1. quality enhancement of the historical settlement areas, including their equipments, 2. businessmen's profile and their motivation, 3. youths' behavior in association with anomie resulted by modernization, 4. recognition of ownership right for the people living in the multi-storey apartement. The results of these researches will be apllied as actor research and will be evaluated to get feedback. |
HUNIAN BERKONTEKS LINGKUNGAN
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Pranata |
| Volume / Edisi | : | VI-1, - (No. 0) |
| Halaman | : | 104-118 |
| Abstrak | : | Eco-human-settlement as analysed by using Fenomenological approach shows up as a dinamic and very rich fenomenon throughout the history of human civilization since its very beginning about 4 million years ago. It has been growing in the form of mutual interelationship between human beings and their evironments that creates not only a livable place to stay but also a world to build various kinds of human culture. The growing of mega-cities in the third world especially in Asia needs a special attention since such a fenomenon brings also a lot of questions concerning the appearance of the worsening megashantytowns where the poorest Asians have been living under the control of poverty-culture. Such a culture should not be allowed to exist any longer. But to wipe it up we need a comprehensive strategy integrated into the long-term mega-city planning based on a strong political and cultural consensus. Such a long-term planning should be managed by involving as many as possible the corporate units as well as the categoric units of the whole community |
MEMPERTANYAKAN KEMBALI KONSEP STATUS ADMINISTRASI KOTMADIA DAERAH TINGKAT II YANG BERKEDUDUKAN SEBAGAI IBUKOTA PROPINSI (MASIH RELEVANKAH?)
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Pranata |
| Volume / Edisi | : | VI-1, - (No. 0) |
| Halaman | : | 90-103 |
| Abstrak | : | The fast growth and development of cities' lead them, both small and middle-size cities, to be metropolis or big cities. Such quick growth and development will make the activities and the problems of those cities, such as in the field of population/demography, public service, iddleness, crime, industry, more complex and difficult. Unfortunately, the growing and the developed cities are not supported by appropriate administrative services since cities' growth and development last much more quickly than those in the field of administrative services. There are three categories of city's administration in Indonesia; Kotamadia Daerah Tingkat II, Kotamadia and Kota Administratif. A few big cities in Indonesia are included into Kotamadia Daerah Tingkat II category. though they are bigger and more complex than the others from the same category. Several big cities have problem on population, that is more than one million people in a single city. Besides, it has more than four districts. In addition, the city has to support its suburban areas. Does such a situation make sense? Big cities, such as Surabaya, Medan, Bandung, Semarang and Ujung Pandang, have given higher status administration than others, because they have more specific problems and activities. |
PENGATURAN PERENCANAAN KOTA DAN HUKUM
| Pengarang | : | Soebyanto Widanti .A |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Pranata |
| Volume / Edisi | : | VI-1, - (No. 0) |
| Halaman | : | 83-89 |
| Abstrak | : | The cities of Indonesia were founded hundreds of year ago and have been growing quickly since. The laws concerning urban planning were legalized a few years later. Until the issuance of UU No. 24 tahun 1992 about urban planning, the government of Indonesia promulgated the urban planning regulations taken from the Dutch system, Stadsvornning Ordonantie Stb. No. 168/1948, followed by Surat Keputusan dari Menteri Dalam Negeri (the Directive from the Minister of Home Affairs) and that from the Minister of Public Work. With the promulgation of UU No. 24 tahun 1992, the spatial arrangement of cities in general and urban planning in particular in Indonesia have underlying objectives and integral systems which can provide legal effects for spatial arrangement of natural, social, and built-in environments. The structural realization of the spatial utilization includes the hierarchy of service centre such as city centres, community centres, government centres; infra structure e.g. arterial roads, streets and avenues; urban design such as the maximum height of a building, distance between two buildings and the height of a ceiling |
LINGKUNGAN HIDUP DAN UNSUR-UNSUR DASAR PENYUSUNNYA (TELAAH KRITIS DARI SEGI ARTI DAN MAKNANYA
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Pranata |
| Volume / Edisi | : | VI-1, - (No. 0) |
| Halaman | : | 75-82 |
| Abstrak | : | So far our knowlegde of life in environment is just around its definition: it has never come to the real content or substance of it. Based on this fact, objective analysis on life environment and its basic elements will really help us to obtain the essence of the life environment. The elements which will be discussed in this writing and are expected to help us catch the essence of the life environment are physical, namely ground, water, air, plant (flora), animal, and human being |
PEMUKIMAN YANG BERWAWASAN LINGKUNGAN (SEBUAH PROBLEM BUDAYA KESEIMBANGAN)
| Pengarang | : | Yosephus Sudiantara |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Pranata |
| Volume / Edisi | : | VI-1, - (No. 0) |
| Halaman | : | 67-74 |
| Abstrak | : | All of us are well aware of the current trends of changes. These changes are brougth about by the behaviour and activities of mankind in their race increasing forwards in their worldly wellbeing or welfare. The way of life has been altered drastically, values are shifting, and cultures are discarded or transformed into new ones. A quantitatively based on strategy should be added by a qualitatively based one to provide a more satisfactory answer to the enviromental problem. Any solution must be complemented by a qualitative strategy which puts an emphasis on a change to enviromentally appropriate values. So the solution must start from a cultural context and concept. Essentially, the cultural concept is rooted in the principles of harmony, compatibility and balance between the human being and his enviroment. If we look closely at a current thinking on sustainable development, including eco-human settlement in urban area, it is clear that the concept of harmony is beginning to be understood. The harmony concept should now be redefined to account for a more complex balance, compatibility, and harmony beetwen humankind and the environment at a higher of sophistication. |