| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 263-292 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The sampling aspects of a household data set are important to analysts. The early years of the Cote d`Ivoire Living Standards Survey (CILSS) had a sampling bias, which seriously affected estimates of population statistics such as household size. The bias arose from sampling procedures that overrepresented larger dwellings. Assuming that samples drawn in later years were unbiased, a correction procedure is applied that uses weights based on household size. Results from the weighted data are then compared with the unweighted findings to assess the seriousness of the bias. Estimates of household expenditure per capita in the early years of the survey are found to be significantly underestimated, resulting in an overestimation of poverty. The sampling bias also resulted in an underestimation of the upward trend in poverty during 1985-88. The CILSS has been popular and fruitful data set for policy analysis. These findings, however, cast doubt on the robustness of earlier work. Thus, the effort to trace sampling information is particularly worthwhile for policy-oriented applied research. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 113-136 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | This article looks at the implications for trade policy of recent work on quota auctions. Recent work has considered a variety of market srtuctures in addition to the standard one of monopoly in the product market. It has also emphasized details of the implementation process, as well as the timing of decisions and dinamic factors. Such considerations are shown to be important, because they can greatly affect the outcome of trade policies. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 65-83 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The article reports the results of field surveys conducted in Sri Lanka`s leather industry and Tanzania`s furniture industry. It outlines an approach to learning how small and medium interprises (SMEs) perceive the impact of financial, regulatory, technical, marketing, and other input constraints, and to evaluating the results in relation to other empirical indicators. Lack of access to finance emerges as the binding constraint for smaller, less established firms in Sri Lanka and for all of Tanzania`s SMEs-not only is informal financing limited for Tanzania`s firms, even firms of adequate size and experience have difficult borrowing from banks, and, if they do borrow, have difficult relations with their lenders. In Tansania, regulatory and tax constraints appear largest for the smallest firms, declining somewhat as firms grow: because enforcement is comprehensive, the bureaucratic burden of negotiating with the government officials is greatest for small firms. By contrast, in Sri lanka the regulatory burden rises with firm size, because enforcement is more stringent for the larger and more visible firms. Constraints on physical inputs continue to inhibit Sri Lankan SMEs-a legacy of excessive vertical integration by parastatals. Technical constraints are appraised as most significant by relatively educated enterpreneurs with some involvement in high-quality market niches. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 1-44 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Inflation persists at moderate rates of 15 to 30 percent in all the countries that successfully reduced triple digit inflations in the 1980s. Several other countries, for example Colombia, have experienced moderate inflation for prolonged periods. Theories of persistent inflation can be classified into those that emphasize seigniorage as a source of government finance and those that emphasize the costs of ending inflation. We examine the sources and persistence of moderate inflation episodes. Most episodes of moderate inflation were triggered by commodity price shocks and were brief; very few ended in higher inflation. This article presents case studies of eight countries, including three that now suffer from moderate inflation and four that successfully moved dwon to single-digit inflation rates. The roles of seignorage, indexation and disindexation, the exchange rate commitment, and monetary and fiscal policy are examined. The evidence suggests that seignorage plays no more than a modest role in the persistence of moderate inflations and that such inflations can be reduced only at substantial short-term cost to growth. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 45-63 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Two approaches are commonly used to determine the equilibrium real exchange rate in a country after external shocks: purchasing power parity (PPP) calculations and the Salter-Swan, tradables-nontradables model. There are theoretical and empirical problems with both approaches, and tensions between them. In this article we resolve these theoretical and empirical difficulties by presenting a model which is a generalization of the Salter-Swan model and which incorporates imperfect substitutes for both imports and exports. Within the framework of this model, the definition of the real exchange rate is consistent both with that of the PPP approach and with that of the Salter-Swan model (suitably extended). Our model, however, is capable of capturing a richer set of phenomena, including terms of trade shocks and changes in foreign capital inflows. It also provides a practical way to estimate changes in the equilibrium real exchange rate, requiring little more information than is required to do PPP calculations. The results are consistent with those of multisector computable general equilibrium models, which generalize the trade specification of the small model. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 85-112 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | This study exploits plant-level panel data from Chile to provide new evidence on the empirical significance of scale economies in manufacturring sectors. Particular emphasis is given to econometric problems induced by the presence of unobservable plant heterogeneity, measurement error, and selectivity. An analysis of the results suggests that estimates based on generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators that pool long differences (which eliminate heterogeneity effects) are robust to measurement error in the capital stock, heteroscedasticity and selectivity. Returns to scale for three-digit industries are fairly evenly distributed over the plausible range of 0.8 to 1.2, and none is statiscally significantly different from constant returns. Similar results hold for the four-digit industries for which sufficient data are available. Although general expansion of the manufacturing sector cannot be expected to yield strong plant-level scale economies, our results do not rule out scale economies from other sources, such as the spreading of start-up costs and external retuns to scale. Finally, the analysis has generated several findings of methodological interest, including the notion that Stigler`s survival test may indeed be useful as quick pass on the empirical importance of returns to scale. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 459-479 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Countries on fixed exchange rates sometimes use uniform tariff cum subsidy (UTCS) schemes as a way of achieving a real depreciation without disturbing the nominal exchange rate. A potential drawback of this policy in relation to an across-the-board devaluation is that a UTCS scheme provides incentives for illegal trage. Using an optimizing model with currency convertibility and illegal trade, I find that welfare is lower under a UTCS scheme than under a corresponding across-the board devaluation and that in some cases the real exchange rate actually appreciates in response to an increase in the UTCS rate. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 503-528 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices during the past decades have had large impacts on developoing countries. Many developing countries have limited access to already incomplete international long-term hedging markets. Thus the question arises whether the currency composition of external debt can be used to minimize exposure to external price risk. Using a utility-maximizing framework, this article shows that, by choosing the optimal currency composition, a country can indeed manage its external exposure. The optimal, risk-minimizing currency composition depends on the relation between export receipts and the costs of borrowings in each currency and on the relations among the costs of borrowings in different currencies. A simple methodology can be used to derive the optimal shares of individual currencies and applied to Mexico and Brazil. The results show that Mexico and Brazil could have lowered their external exposure to a limited degree by continously altering the currency composition of their debt. The low correlations between the costs of borrowings and export and import price make the currency composition of a very imperfect hedging tool, and it is likely that hedging instruments directly linked to prices are preferable. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 439-458 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Inflation inertia may be quite tenacious because of the simultaneous interaction between policy actions and inflationary expectations under imperfect credibility. This result is particularly relevant for understanding some of the failed efforts to stabilize inflation in South America. This article deals with the issue of inertia in the framework of imperfect information about the type of the policymakers and extends the existing models to an infinite horizon. Because policymakers do not have perfect control of inflation, a "frivolous stabilizer" may deviate from the policies of a "serious stabilizer" without necessarily being unmasked immediately. When the difference in the ability of "strong" and "weak" policymakers to control inflation is large, unexpected inflation may be persistently negative for quite a while, thus causing reduced economic activity and giving the indication that credibility is low. If the policymaker persists with the stabilization, this pattern gradually dissapears as his reputation rises. But before this final stage the serious policymaker has to comprimise this inflation objective in view of adverse expectations about his type and pay the cost of imperfect credibility. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 399-422 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Two questions are asked about the realtionship between domestic prices and world prices of agricultural commodities: are variations in world prices transmitted to domestic prices, and do these variations in world prices constitute an important component of variations of domestic prices? Domestic prices are regressed on world prices in various forms, taking into account the possible effects of exchange rates and inflation. The empirical analysis is based on data from the Food and Agriculture organization of the United Nation for 58 countries for 1968-78 and for the countries of the European Community for 1961-85. The results show that most of the variations in world prices are transmitted and that they constitute the dominant component in the variations of domestic prices. |
Unduh Dokumen Berkas PDF Utama