| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 21-41 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | External debt depresses investment and lowers economic growth bellow its potential through its negative effect on liquidity and expected profitability. These effects can pull a country into a downward spiral in which both the debtor country and creditors lose. This article considers the possibilities for revising contracts between a debtor and its creditors once a debt crisis has erupted. The framework that we develop shows how various combinations of new money and cuts in debt and debt service affect a debtor country`s welfare, its debt repayments, and the earnings of its creditors. The analysis distinguishes between debtor countries that are willing and able to precommit credibly to an adjustment program and those that are not. This distinction provides the basis for a discussion of conditional lending by the international financial institutions to provide incentives and sanctions that make credible a debtor`s promises to invest. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 103-114 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | In an attempt to protect workers from unemployment, governments in some countries subsidize firms which would otherwise fail. This article examines the effects of such subsidies on output, prices, and welfare. It also briefly reviews the effects for varying price elasticities of supply and demand, for nontraded and fully traded goods, and for firms in which wages exceed their free market level. If the firm produces a nontraded good, the "sickness" of one firm that is subsidized to maintain production can spread to other firms that would be viable in the absence of the subsidies. The analysis shows that the exit constraints have the most detrimental effect when the elasticity of demand is low and supply elasticity is high, and when the government weights the welfare of the firm`s workers and consumers less than that of the general taxpayers and the firms owners. When labor costs are higher than their free market levels and output is thus less than the optimal levels, the subsidies could have an effect similar to that of an optimal production subsidy. In practice, however, this possibility is likely to be outweighed by associated rent-seeking costs and other distortions. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 55-79 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The effect of macroeconomic policies on the relative prices of internationally traded and domestic goods has been the subject of extensive study. Analysis of the way in which these policies then affect prices at the sectoral level is complicated by the heterogeneity of sectoral production: even the prices of single products usually are determined by both domestic and traded components. We present a framework which first traces the influence of macropolicy on the relative prices of exports, imports, and home goods. It then accounts for each sector`s degree of "tradability," which is based on the importance of trade in sectoral prices. To illustrate the use of this approach, it is applied to a simulation of trade liberalization in Argentina. Our results suggest that economywide policies had substantial negative effects on both the real exchange rate and the incentives to agricultural exports. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 1-20 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The debt crisis and declining living standards require careful husbanding of critically scarce foreign exchange in most African countries. But economic theory suggests that smaller countries, which import from only a few international suppliers and cannot support competitive markets and infrastructure, would be likely to pay more rather than less for imports. Analysis of import unit values for 1962-87 shows that the twenty African former French colonies paid a price premium of 20-30 percent on average over other importers for iron and steel imports from France. The losses associated with these adverse prices totaled approximately 2 billion dollars by 1987. The study also finds that similar price premia (of 20-30 percent) were paid by former Belgian, British, and Portuguese colonies in Africa for imports of these products from their former rulers. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 43-53 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | An efficient rescheduling of the debt must take into account the market value of the debt. I argue here that the appropriate approach is not to write down the debt to its value on the secondary market, but to scale the flows of payments on the debt. The key to an efficient rescheduling is to offer debt relief reflecting the market discount, where the relief is contingent upon the country`s adjusment effort (rather than setting repayment terms " once and for all" as in the Brady plan). I propose, as an example, that stabilization or adjustment programs under the aegis of the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank could include provisions allowing debt servicing or repurchase for a set duration at the secondary market rate. This would both reflect and provide incentives to increase a country`s ability to repay. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | Jack M. Mintz, Daniel Cohen, Yeats, Alexander J., Yair Mundlak, Domingo Cavallo, Roberto Domenech, Garry Pursell, Ishac Diwan, Stjin Claessens |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 81-102 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Governments of developing countries commonly adopt tax holidays to encourage investment. This article evaluates the incentives provided by company income tax holidays and explains the importance of the timing of depreciation allowances in determining the effective tax rates and the cost of capital to firms considering additional investment during the holiday. If an asset is long-lived and depreciation allowances for tax purposes are accelerated, the tax holiday, by preventing depreciation deductions during periods of peak profits, may actually penalize a company for investing during the holiday. The closer the investment to the end of the holiday period, the more severe the penalty. If, instead, depreciation allowances may be deferred until after the holiday, this program of incentives is quite generous to the firm. How these sharply contrasting results may emerge is illustrated through estimation of effective tax rates and user costs of capital under tax holiday systems in Bangladesh, Cote deI`voire, Malaysia, Morroco, and Thailand. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 339-357 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Some governments facing high rates of inflation have adopted wage and exchange rate indexation in an attempt to offset the costs to workers and exporters. But indexation based on past values of inflation is considered to be a powerful source of current and future inflation that undermines fiscal and monetary stringency designed to reduce inflation. Brazil indexed wages and the exchange rate for more than twenty years, and we examine Brazilian evidence on these issues. We derive a transfer function and estimate time-varying parameters to allow for the changes in indexing policy over the period. We find that the increased frequency of wage and exchange rate adjustment amplified the effect of past inflation and made it less sensitive to monetary and fiscal policies and more vulnerable to domestic agricultural supply shocks. Indexing did not eliminate the effectiveness of monetary policy, however, which retained a significant effect throughout the indexation period. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 359-378 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The appropriate fiscal response to a temporary terms of trade windfall is difficult to determine, even in an unregulated economy. But controls, such as those in forse during the 1976-79 coffee boom in Kenya, introduce special problems. For example, foreign exchange controls make the private investment of boom income inefficient by causing it to be undertaken too rapidly. In Kenya the boom induced a massive increase in public expenditure, far in excess of the increase in public revenue. The net effect on capital formation was negatif because the fiscal response exacerbated the rise in the relative price of nontraded capital goods, and because resources were preempted for government consumption. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 297-320 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Which tradeoffs are involved in formulating an external debt strategy? Should expenditure be cut to improve the current account, or will this reduce future output growth, thus undermining the benefits of any debt reduction? Are there alternatives that allow satisfactory output growth without jeopardizing creditworthiness? How can the necessary surplus of savings over investment high enough to sustain output growth? Should the government contribute to the internal adjustment by reducing its deficit? Macroeconomic targets for inflation and growth, and creditworthiness constraints on debt issues, impose restrictions on the extent to which deficits can be financed. Can the government cover the deficit within these targets and constrains? The absence of such consistency forebodes future policy change and so undermines the credibility of the adjustment program. The author uses empirical work on Turkey to illustrated the interactions between fiscal deficits and the macroeconomic variables upon which fiscal consistency hinges. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 395-408 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Governments faced with growing budget deficits are cutting many social expenditures, including costly food subsidy programs that have provided benefits to the rich and poor alike. Because the poor spend a larger share of their income and food than do the rich, however, such cuts usually have negative distributional, welfare and nutritional effects. This article discusses the methodological issues in estimating the effects of price and tax reforms in developing countries. I apply a model that Deaton (1988) developed to estimate price elasticities from cross-section data, the only reliable and detailed data available in most developing countries. I use measures of both real income and nutrition to evaluate the effects of changes in the Moroccan food subsidy program. The analysis suggests that subsidies on inferior foods not consumed by the wealthy would reduce the welfare costs to the poor and limit the budgetary expenditures required. |
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