| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 379-393 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The determinants of savings generally and the specific effects of government policies on savings and comsumption are pivotal forces in investment and economic growth. The Hall hypothesis states that consumption is a function of lifetime ("permanent") income, rather than income in each period independently. Changes in interest and tax rates, money supply, and government expenditure will affect permanent income and hence consumption and savings only if they are unexpected and thus not already incorporated in the estimation of permanent income. We are unable to reject the Hall hypothesis in tests for developing countries when we allow for varying interest rates. We do find evidence of a negative effect of inflation on consumption, and a positive relationship between the real interest rate and consumption. The evidence for the Hall hypothesis also suggest that Ricardian equivalence may be valid-this is Barro`s hypothesis that the effect on savings is the same whether government deficits are financed through taxation or debt. Our preliminary testing, however, does not support Ricardian equivalence. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | Brian Pinto, Arvind Virmani, Lakshmi K. Raut, Karim Laraki, Sweder van Wijnbergen, D. L. Bevan, P. Collier, J. W. Gunning, Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, Paul D. McNelis |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 321-338 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs favor unification of official and black market exchange rates on the argument that multiple exchange rates missallocate resources. This article shows that such policy advice sometimes overclooks an important consideration: when multiple rates are a means of taxation, the widened deficit from unification increases inflation. This article uses the experience of Ghana, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone to illustrate the tradeoff between the benefits of unification for resource allocation and its costs for inflation. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 241-261 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | In the early1980s, faced with mounting debt crisis, most highly indebted developing countries increased trade barriers to save foreign exchange-but in the last three to four years, they have reserved course. Almost all of these countries have undergone real devaluations, and many have undertaken significant liberalizations, so much so that some (Bolivia, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Mexico, Morocco, and Uruguay) are less protectionist than before the debt crisis. But industrial countries have imposed new nontariff barriers against imports from highly indebted countries. Canada, Australia, the European Community, and the United States have greatly increased the use of countervailing duties and antidumping actions.This makes it more difficult for highly indebted countries to pay off their debts, and ultimately rebounds on creditor governments and banks. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 145-181 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Economists have long searched for patterns that relate successful development to structure and policy. This article reviews the experience of growth and industrialization in the postwar period in more than 100 economies, drawing on time-series data over a three-decade period. Economies are classified according to their population size, the share of primary or manufactured goods in their exports, and the weight of exports in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We examine the composition of demand, trade, output, manufacturing type, and factor use overall and between sectors as they relate to income growth. Higher income growth and more marked transformation are found among the groups with large populations, a predominance of manufactures in exports, and a larger role of exports. We also find that the patterns suggested by cross-country analysis are robust when tested using the time series data now available. Although development experiences may vary over time and across countries, there is sufficient uniformity within them for the main features of structural transformation to emerge as clear and consistent patterns of modern economic growth. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 263-278 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Unless very specific assumptions are made, theory alone cannot determine the sign of the relation between real exchange rate uncertainty and exports. On the one hand, convexity of the profit function with respect to prices implies that an increase in price uncertainty raises the expected returns in the export sector. On the other, potential asymetries in the cost of adjusting factors of production (for example, investment irreversibity) and risk aversion tend to make the uncertainty-exports relation negative. This article examines these issues using a simple risk-aversion model. Export equations allowing for uncertainty are then estimated for six developing countries. Contrary to the ambiguity of the theory, the empirical relation is strongly negative. Our estimates indicate that a 5 percent increase in the annual standard deviation of the real exchange rate can reduce exports by 2 to 30 percent in the short run. These effects are substantially magnified in the long run. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 211-239 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Comparisons of the debt crises of the 1930s and 1980s emphasize the greater incidence of default and the greater ease of restucturing half a century ago. The difficulty developing-country debtors have had in putting the current crisis behind them, it is argued, is due to the more systematic involvement of creditor-country government and intergovernment agencies. This article reviews the negotiating strategies of the debtor and creditors of the 1930s, the terms of settlement, and the realized rates of return on U.S. an U.K. foreign bonds. It shows that rather than being sharp and complete, default in the 1930s was often partial and intermittent. Uncertainty about debt, trade, and export credits lingered on. Often many years passed before final settlements were achieved. Creditor-country governments were intimately involved in the settlement process, although their influence was not always to the benefit of the bondholders. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 279-295 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | To assess proposed macroeconomic adjustment programs, policymakers must estimate import demand relative to the foreign exchange available. Traditional models estimate import demand as a function of realtive prices (the real exchange rate) and income (gross domestic product) but omit changes in foreign exchange. In the 1980s, however, declines in foreign exchange availability in most developing countries and limited import capacity. In this article two import models are presented which incorporate both the traditional variables and indicators of import capacity-foreign exchange inflows and international reserves. The first model assumes that import prices are exogenous, but in the second model import prices are endogenous-allowing for government attempts to reduce import demend by increasing the domestic import price. The models are estimated using data for twenty-one developing countries for 1970-83. The results suggest that the import model presented here does a better job of explaining import behavior than do the traditional model (which excludes changes in foreign exchange) and the Hemphill model (which excludes relative import prices and income). |
| Nama Pengarang | : | Deaton, Angus , Cristian Moran, Eichengreen, Barry, Richard Portes, Corbo, Vittorio, Ricardo J. Caballero, Mosche Syrquin, Hollis Chenery, Julio Nogues, Sam Laird |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 183-210 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | In recent years, household survey data from developing coutries have increasingly become available and have been increasingly used to cast light on important questions of policy. The reform of prices, whether agricultural prices, consumer taxes, subsidies, or tariffs, has consequences for individual welfare and for government revenues, and these can be investigated empirically with household survey data. The gainers and losers from price changes can be identified, and the magnitudes of their gains and losses measured. Nonparametric estimation techniques provide a straightforward and convenient way of displaying this information. The procedure is ilustrated for the effect of rice pricing in Thailand using data for more that five thousand rural households. Estimates of the revenue effects of price reforms are harder to obtain, because they require estimates of supply and demand elasticities, estimates that are not easily obtained for many developing countries. A procedure is presented for estimating price elasticities of demand from spatial price variation as recorded in household survey data. The main innovations lie in the appropriate treatment of quality variations and measurement error. Applications of the procedure in Cote d`Ivoire, Indonesia, and Morroco are reviewed. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 97-117 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Aggregate data on wages and employment may provide misleading indicators of labor market conditions. They may suggest inappropriate wage policies in the face of the rising unemployment experienced in many developing countries during the 1980s. Such increase in unemployment are often attributed to wage rigidities. A cursory review of aggregate data for the modern sector in Cote d`Ivoire would support this view, suggesting that employment declined during the 1979-84 recession due to an increase in real wages. Examination of disaggregated data from two labor force censuses of the modern sector, however, shows that real wages declined for specified classes of labor. The work force was characterized by greater education, training, and experience; workers with a given level of attributes received a lower real wage by the end of the recession than before it. Despite this drop in real wages, employment in the modern sector declined. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 67-95 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | As part of their efforts to reduce fiscal deficits, many governments have allowed public sector salaries to erode, often on the assumption that governments workers are overpaid vis-a-vis those in the private sector. We test that assumption by analyzing public-private pay differentials in Cote d`Ivoire and Peru. Switching regressions models are estimated using Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML), and the results are compared to those obtained using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) techniques. The OLS yields seriously biased estimates of the pay structure, suggesting that public wages are higher than private wages; the FIML estimates show the opposite. Our probit analysis also shows that the wage disadvantage of civil servants is a determinant of the greater prevalence of moonlightinf among public than private employees. The evidence suggests that reductions in employment rather than pay, while being less palatable in the short terms, will be more effective in the long run. |
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