| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 297-319 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Between 1992 and 1998 the Peruvian Social Fund (FONCODES) spent about US$570 million funding microprojects throughout the country. Many of these projects involved constructing and renovating school facilities. This article uses data from FONCODES, the 1993 population census in Peru, and a 1996 household survey conducted by the Peruvian Statistical Institute to analyze the targeting and impact of FONCODES investments in education. A number of descriptive and econometric techniques are employed, including nonparametric regressions, differences in differences, and instrumental variables estimators. Results show that FONCODES investments in school infrastructure have reached poor districts and poor households within those districts. The investmentsalso appear to have had positive effecvts on schoolattendance rates for youmg children. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 219-240 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The Armenian Social Investment Fund support communities` efforts to improve local infrastructure during Armenia`s economic transition away from central planning, financing community-designed and implemented projects to rehabilitate primary schools, water systems, and other infrastructure. This article considers the targeting, household impact, and community effects of the social fund`s activities. It relies on a nationally representative household survey, oversampled in areas where the social fund was active. Using propensity and pipeline matching techniques to control for community self-selection into the social fund, it evaluates the household effects of rehabilitating schools and water systems. The results show that the social fund reached poor households, particularly in rural areas. Education projects increased households` spending on education significantly and had mild effects on school attendance. Potable water projects increased household access to water and had mild positive effects on health. Communities that completed a social fund project were less likely than the comparison group to complete other local infrastructure projects, suggesting that social capital was expended in these early projects. By contrast, communities that joined the social fund later and had not yet completed their projects took more initiatives not supported by the social fund. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 197-212 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | A portfolio-based model (CreditRisk+of Credit Suisse First Boston) and recent Central Bank of Argentina credit bureau data are used to estimate whether current capital and provisioning regulations math actual risks. Arguing that provisions should cover expected losses and that capital requirements should cover potential losse beyond expected losses subject to some statistical level of tolerance, the article assesses how well actual capital and provisioning requirements match the estimated requirements given by the model. Actual provisioning requirements were found to be close to implied levels of expected losses. The estimate of potential losses was found to be highly sensitive to the assumptions of the model, especially the parameter relating the volatility of a loan`s rate of default to its mean value. This volatility parameter cannot be estimated accurately with the credit bureau data because of the short time span covered, so proxy data were used to estimate it, and two values around that estimate were tried. The difficulty of estimating this critical parameter implies that the result should only be regarded as suggestive. Moreover, the methodology only seeks to estimate credit risk and not interest rate risk or exchange rate risk, nor does it fully take into account the indirect effects of interest rates and exchange rates on credit risk. As recent events in Argentina have demonstrated, estimating credit risk along these lines should be throught of as just one tool in attempting to assess the appropriate level of bank provisions and capital. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 213-217 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 171-195 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Changes in sovereign debt ratings and outlooks affect financial markets in emerging economies. They affect ot only the instrument being rated (bonds) but also stocks. They directly impact the markets of the countries rated and generate cross-country contagion. The effects of rating and outlook changes are stronger during crises, in nontransparent economies, and in neighboring countries. Upgrades tend to take place during market rallies, whereas downgrades occur during downturns, providing support to the idea that credit rating agencies contribute to the instability in emerging financial markets. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 151-170 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Sovereign credit ratings play an important part in determining countries` access to international capital markets and the terms of that access. In principle, there is no reason to expect that sovereign credit ratings should systematically predict currency crises. In practice, in emerging market economies there is strong link between currency crises and default. Hence if credit ratings are forward-looking and currency crises in emerging market economies are linked to defaults, it follows that downgrades in credit ratings should systematically precede currency crises. This article presents results suggesting that sovereign credit ratings systematically fail to predict currency crises but do considerably better in predicting defaults. Downgrades in credit ratings usually follow currency crises, possibly suggesting that currency instability increases the risk of default. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 149-150 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | John Newman et al, Carmen M. Reinhart, Carmen M. Reinhart, Graciela L. Kaminsky, Sergio L. Schmukler, Laura B. Rawlings, Norbert R. Schady, Veronika Balzarotti, Michael Falkenheim, Andrew Powell, Robert S. Chase, Norbert R. Schady, Christina Paxson, Menno Pradhan, Laura B. Rawlings |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 241-274 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | This article reviews the results of an impact evaluation of small-scale rural infrastructure projects in health, water, and education financed by the Bolivian Social Investment Fund. The impact evaluation used panel data on project beneficiaries and control or comparison groups and applied several evaluation methodologies. An experimental design based on randomization of the offer to participate in a social fund project was successful in estimating impact when combined with bounds estimates to address noncompliance issues. Propensity score matching was applied to baseline data to reduce observable preprogram differences between treatment and comparison groups. Results for education projects suggest that although they improved school infrastructure, they had little impact on education outcomes. In contrast, interventions in health clinics, perhaps because they went beyond simply improving infrastructure, raised utilization rates and where associated with substantial declines in under-age-five mortality. Investments is small community water systems had no major impact on water quality until combined with community-level trainning, though they did increase the access to and the quantity of water. This increase in quantity appears to have been sufficient to generate declines in under-age-five mortality similar in size to those associated with the health interventions. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 49-79 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | This article uses a multisector, multicountry, computable general equilibrium model to examine Chile`s strategy of ``additive regionalism``-negotiating bilateral free trade agreements with all of its significant trading partners. Taking Chile`s regional arrangements bilaterally, only its agreements with Northern partners provide sufficient market access to overcome trade diversion costs. Due to preferential market access, however, additive regionalism is likely to provide Chile with gains that are many multiples of the static welfare gains from unilateral free trade. At least one partner country loses from each of the regional agreements considered, and excluded countries as agroup always lose. Gains to the world from global free trade are estimated to be vastly larger than gains from any of the regional arrangements |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 81-108 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Maritime transport costs significantly impede international trade. This article examines why these cost are so high in some countries and quantifies the importance of two explanations: restrictive trade policies and private anticompetitive practices. It finds that both matter, but the latter have a greater impact. Trade liberalization and the breakup of private carrier agreements would lead to an average of one-third lower linear transport prices and to cost savings of up to US$3 billion on goods carried to the United States alone. The policy implications are clear: there is a need not only for further liberalization of government policy but also for strengthened international disciplines on restrictive business practices. The authors propose an approach to developing such disciplines in the current round of service negotiations the World Trade Organization. |
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