| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 385-418 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The World Bank undertakes an annual expenditure of around $60 million on country-specific economic analysis and advice for its member developing countries. What is the impact of this economic and sector work on the quality of World Bank lending? It would be useful to know whether past analytical work has generated measurable economic benefits that would justify its continued provision in an environment of increasingly scarce resources. This article sets out an idealized model of decisionmaking in which a country manager makes a broad allocation of resources between ending services and economic and sector work. Given that decision, the task manager for each project makes project specific decisions with respect to the allocation of resources between preparation and supervision. The analysis indicates that economic and sector work has a significant positive impact on the quality of World Bank loans. The results provide clear evidence of underinvestment in economic and sector work. And the analysis shows that resources could be switched from preparation and supervision to economic and sector work to the benefit of both the equality of programs and level of disbursements. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 419-455 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The demographic transition-a change from high to low rates mortality and fertility-has been more dramatic in East Asia during the twentieth century than in any other region or historical period. By introducing demographic variables into an empirical model of economic growth, this article shows that this transition has contributed substantially to East Asia`s so-called economic miracle. The miracle occured in part because East Asia`s demographic transition resulted in its working-age population growing at a much faster rate than its dependent population during 1965-90, thereby expanding the per capita productive capicity of East Asian economies. This effect was not inevitable; rather, it occured because East Asian countries had social, economic, and political institutions and policies that allowed them to realize the growth potential created by the transition. The empirical analyses indicate the population growth has a purely transitional effect on economic growth; this effect operates only when the dependent and working-age populations are growing at different rates. These results imply that future demographic change will tend to depress growth rates in East Asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growth in Southeast and South Asia. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 353-384 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | A bussiness environment characterized by "incredible" rules such as unclear property rights, constant policy surprises and reversals, uncertain contract enforcement, and high corruption most likely translates into lower investment and growth. The literature on growth and policies has suggested different ways to measure the relevant uncertainties. This article proposes a new measurement approach based on firm-level surveys and an indicator of the "credibility of rules." Using data from a private sector survey conducted in 73 countries and covering more than 3,800 enterprises, standard cross-country growth and investment analysis indicates that low credibilty of rules is associated with lower rates of investment and growth. The survey was designed to capture local entrepreneurs` views of the predictability of changes in laws and policies, of the reliabiity of law enforcement, of the impact of discretionary and corrupt bureaucracies, and of the danger of policy reversals due to changes in governments. Confidence in the reliability of the survey results opens many avenues for further research that could exploit the micro dimensions of this data set. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | David Canning, Aymo Brunnetti, Gregory Kisunko, Beatrice Weder, David E. Bloom, Williamson, Jeffrey G., Squire, Lyn, Klaus Deininger, Swati Basu, Paul R. Masson, Bayoumi, Tamim, Hossein Izadpanah, Laura Rawlings, Menno Pradhan, Geert Ridder, Jacques Morisset |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 529-548 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | This article describes an annual database of physical infrastructure stoks for a cross-section of 152 countries for 1950-95. The database includes estimates of six measures of infrastucture: the number of telephones, the number of telephone main lines, kilowatts of electricity-generating capacity, kilometers of total reads, kilometers of paved roads, and kilometers of railway lines. Both raw and manipulated data sets, in which series have been linked to overcome changes in definition and coverage, are reported. Some measures of infrastructure quality, such as the percentage of local telephone calls that do not go through, the percentage of diesel locomotives available for use, and the percentage of electricity lost from the distribution system, are included. The data on all series except total roads are reasonably good quality and should prove useful to researchers. The article also presents regression results relating stocks of infrastructure to population, per capita gross domestic product, land area and level of urbanization. It shows that stocks of telephones, electricity-generating capacity, and paved roads tend to increase proportionately with population and more than proportionately with per capita gross domestic product. Both the length of total roads and the length of total rail lines rise with country size and are relatively insensitive to population and income. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 221-249 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | This article outlines a new approach for analyzing the role of trade in promoting industrial development. It offers an explanation as to why firms are reluctant to move to countries with lower labor costs and shows how trade liberalization can change the incentives for firms to locate in developing countries. It models economic development as the spread of concentrations of firms from country to country. Different trading arrangements may have a major impact on this development process. By changing te attractiveness of countries as a base for manufacturing production, they can pottentially trigger-or postpone-industrial development. The analysis shows that unilaterally liberalizing imports of manufactures can promote industrialization but that membership in a preferential trading arrangement is likely to create larger gains. South-South preferential trading arrangements will be sensitive to the market size of member states, while North-South arrangements seem to offer better prospects for participating southern countries, if not for excluded countries. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 197-220 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The past decade has witnessed a renewed interest in regional trade agreements, with many policymakers and academics seeming to believe that these provide more than the traditional gains from trade. This article examines several possible benefits that regional trade agreements may confer on their partners, including credibility, signaling, bargaining power, insurance, and coordination. It assesses the necessary conditions for each possible channel to work, gives stylized examples to specific types of policy where the benefit might be applicable, examines cases where the explanation might be relevant, and discusses their overall plausibility. It concludes by examining the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Europe Agreements. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 251-270 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The rapid economic growth of developing countries that opened their markets to free international trade during the past two decades has stimulated a large empirical and theoretical literatureon the impact of trade on growth. This literature concludes that free trade and growth were positively correlated during the 1970s and 1980s. However, most studies focus on discriminatory openness. Does regional integration matter for economic growth? Do regional trade agreements have any impact on growth? This article presents empirical evidence that countries with open, large, and more developed neighboring economies grow fastern than those with closed, smaller, and less developed neighboring economies. The results are robust to different specifications of the empirical model and different definitions of openness, suggesting that small economies should grow faster when they form regional trade aggrements with large and more developed economies. However, testing for the impact of five regional trade agreements during the 1970s and 1980s finds that none led to faster growth. The main reason seems to be that most of these agreements were among small, closed, and developing economies. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 271-295 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Regional integration agreements are examples of second-best policies and have an ambiguos impact on welfare. This article builds a model in which regional integration agreements unambiguously raise welfare by correcting for externalities. It assumes that trade between neighboring countries raises trust between them and reduces the likehood of conflict. The optimum intervention in that case is a subsidy on imports from the neighbor. The article shows that an equivalent solution is for the neighboring countries to tax imports from the rest of the world-that is, to form a regional integration agreement- together with some domestic taxes. The article shows that (1) the optimum tariffs on imports from the rest off the world are likely to decline over time; (2) deep integration implies lower optimum external tariffs if it is exogenous; (3) optimum external tariffs are higher before deep integration and lower thereafter if deep integration is endogenous; and (4) enlargement of bloc size (in terms of symmetric countries) has an ambiguous impact on external tariffs but raises welfare, and some form of domino effect exists. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 323-352 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Deskripsi abstrak ringkas tidak tersedia untuk artikel ini. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 297-320 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Mescosur appears as an interesting case study for analyzing the determinants of exections in regional trade agreements. Its member countries-Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay-intended to make Mercosur a full customs union January 1995. This goal turned out to be too ambitious, and the Protocol of Ouro Preto and other agreements signed in December 1994 led to a hybrid solution. Overall, out of a total of 9,119 tariff lines, around 30 percent are subject, in at least one member country, to either external deviations from the common external tariff or internal deviations from free trade. Thus an important set of holes remains under the existing agreement, leading some authors to consider Mercosur an incomplete customs union. This article compares the results of the theoretical literature on endogenous tariff formation with evidence from Mercosur. The results show that Mercosur`s common external tariff and member countries` deviations from it and from internal free trade can be explained by sector or industry lobbying as predicted by the endogenous tariff literature. If a viable political economy is a key to success, then Mercosur is here to stay. |
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