| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 377-395 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Significant amounts of private capital have flowed out of several of the more heavily indebted developing countries. This outflow, often called "capital flight," largely escapes taxation by the borrowing-country government, and it has generated concern about the prospects for future servicing of the debt. Imprefect contract enforcement may lead to implicit or explicit government guarantee of foreign debt. The model developed below demonstrates that government policy of guaranteeing private debt can in turn generate more than one outcome. One such outcome replicates the allocation under perfect contract enforcement: national savings are invested domestically and foreign debt is repaid. The tax obligation implied by potential nationalization of private debt, however, can also lead to another outcome in which national capital flees, and foreign debt may be not repaid. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 419-445 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Nigeria and Indonesia provide an interesting contrast with regard to performance and policy during and after the oil boom. Roughly a decade after the first oil shock, Nigeria is faced with several economic problems including a serious decline in its agricultural sector and a deteriorating external debt situation. While some decline in the nonoil traded goods sector reflects efficient adjustment to the oil boom, policy with regard to public expenditure, exchange rates, princing, and the trade regime could exacerbate such decline and impede readjustment as the boom subsides. The links between oil prices, deficits, inflation, and real exchange rate appreciation are analyzed and Nigerian and Indonesian fiscal and exchange rate and agricultural and foreign borrowing strategies are compared. It is concluded that with the exception of cuts in the deficit since 1984, Nigerian policy following the boom has not been conducive to adjustment to the current period of low oil prices and high real interest rates. Corrective measure and policy options are discussed. A postcript gives post-September 1986 policy changes. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 397-418 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | In this article a model is developed to evaluate the impact on an exporting country of a restraint imposed on its export by an importing economy in the context of a three-region model of world trade in a single product. The welfare changes in any of the three regions in the model and in the global economy can be evaluated. The model is applied to the restraints imposed on stell exports from the Republic of Korea to the United States and the European Economic Community (EEC). The United States and the EEC are found to have incurred significant losses as a result of the restraints. The largest part of these losses are quota rents tranferred to Korea and the rest of the world. Under reasonable parameter assumptions, Korea and the rest of the world obtain net gains from the quotas, because the resource misallocation costs are smaller than the quota rents. The model is modified to analyze a tariff barrier rather than a quantitative restraint. It is found that an "equivalent" tariff on steel transforms Korea and the rest of the world from net gainers to net losers as a result of a restraint. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 489-513 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The economic theory of "Dutch disease" is extended and applied to the 1976-79 coffee boom in Kenya in this article. When a commodity boom is perceived as temporary, a large fraction will tend to be saved out of transient income. The spending effect of the boom is supplemented by relative price changes resulting from capital stock increases. In the presence of foreign exchange and import controls, the benefits of a sudden export price increase may be transeferred intersectorally. Using a general equilibrium model, it is estimated that in Kenya the benefits of the boom were largely transferred from coffee growers to urban groups. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 515-521 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Deskripsi abstrak ringkas tidak tersedia untuk artikel ini. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 447-487 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | As members of the Communaute Financiere Africaine, Cameroon, Cote d`Ivoire, and Senegal cannot use the nominal exchange rate as a tool of macroeconomic adjustment. This article considers these countries` responses to the commodity and oil price shocks of the 1970s in light of this and other institutional constraints. Using a two-sector model, it shows that there exist instruments that, in principle, permit the real exchange rate depreciation necessary for adjusting to macroeconomic imbalances. The authors interpret the very different adjustment experiences of the three countries (despite their common economic structure and institutional setting) in terms of different uses of these instruments. Alternative assumptions about the labor market leave the qualitative nature of the results unaltered. Statistical analysis of data from the three countries confirms the model`s linking of the current account and real exchange rate with the instruments of adjustment. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 191-217 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Recent reforms in trade policy in Turkey have produced a foreign trade regime that exhibits very little antiexport bias on average. A quantitave, multisectoral general equilibrium model of the Turkish economy shows that piecemeal trade policy reform, based on first-best rationales that are appropriate for highly distorted economies, would not now be appropriate. Further tariff reductions must be coordinated with export subsidy reductions to attain significant welfare benefits. The dispersion of distortions, especially export subsidies, is more important than their level. A policy of harmonizing tariffs to the common external tariff of the European Community has virtually no effect on welfare. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 137-172 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The troublesome debts of a number of developing countries have spawned a large literature on why countries borrow, on the extent to which debt contributes to growth, on why countries repay, and on how debt problems should be handled. First, it presents the basic accounting concept associated with debt. Second, it treats debt as a component of the intertemporal maximization of a borrower in a competitive loan market facing an intertemporal budget constraint. Third, it introduce debt into recent models of endogenous growth and examines what these models imply about the relationship between debt and growth. Fourth, it discusses issues arising from sovereign risk. Fifth, it examines incentives to repay. Sixth, it reviews the various options available to a creditor facing a debtor unwilling to meet current debt service obligations. Seventh, it examines debt buybacks. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 173-189 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | A Solow-style model is developed to study the effects of the AIDS epidemic on the growth path of the economy and GDP per capita. The model uses conjectures about the demographic effects of AIDS in Tanzania to estimate the macroeconomic effects on the economy. The findings suggest that, without decisive policy action, AIDS may reduce Tanzanian GDP in the year 2010 by 15 to 25 percent in relation to a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario. Per capita income levels are expected to fall by 0 to 10 percent by 2010. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The World Bank Economic Review |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 247-262 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Countries vary in their political commitment to change and in the capability of their bureaucracies. Policies vary in their organizational and political demands, These institutional variations can be incorporated into the design of trade and investment policy reform. In virtually all countries the presumption should be for reforms to dismantle-not reconfigure-restrictive entry rules and dysfunctional discretionary investment incentives. But there is no single approach, common across countries, through which trade policy reform should proceed. Countries with weak administrative capabilities should push import liberalization to the limits. But politically constrained countries with a stronger admistrative capability might consider roundabout reforms that secure outward orientation without full-scale, prior import liberalization. |
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