| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 28-53 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | For the Fourth Five-Year Development Plan (Repelita IV), 1984/5-1988/9, the Indonesian government has set as transmigration target the resettlement of 750,000 families. The task is a formidable one not only in terms of numbers to be moved but also because of the scarcity of suitable land available for agriculture. The author examines the problems which have arisen on transmigration sites developed during Repelita IV is assessed and an indication given of the Government`s priorities in achieving the set target for the remainder of the Plan period. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 54-79 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The paper examines the structure of Indonesia`s manufacturing sector, using data from the 1980 input-output tables, and supporting data from various industrial surveys and national accounts. An input-output analysis of sectoral linkages and factor demand (labour), proxies for skill and capital, imports) is used to derive implications for growth and employment of two contrasting industrial development strategies-a labour-intensive strategy and a more capital-intensive strategy fostering basic industries. It is argued that a labour-intensive, resource-based, and export-oriented strategy combined with selective import substitution is most likely to achieve the stated development goals of the Indonesian government. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 103-113 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 1-27 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Then speed and extent of the current oil price decline has created macroeconomic difficulties of a magnitude that Indonesia has not experienced since the late 1960s. The rapid fall in oil prices from January to April has significantly worsened Indonesia`s economic outlook, putting strong pressure on the stringent budget for 1986/ 87, and on the balance of payments. with spot and contract prices for Indonesia`s Minas crude down to US$11 per barrel in May, public discussion has now focused on the prospect of an absolute decline in GDP for the first time since 1963. A United States Embassy report on the Indonesian economy, completed in late May, has predicted a real contraction in GDP by as much as 3% in 1986. On the other hand, the Institute of Social and Economic Research LPEM) at University of Indonesia has projected GDP to increase by 1.8% this year, due party to a more optimistic view of performance in the contruction sector (Tempo, 7/6/86). But whatever growth rate emerges it will clearly be low.The daunting task for policy makers is to maintain the growth momentum, keeping in mind the need to ceate job opportunities for the estimated 1.8 million new entrans into the work force annually. Assuming an oil price of $15 per barrel, Indonesia will face a shortfall of Rp. 3 trillion in revenues compared with the 1986/87 budget target, and a deficit of around $4.4 billion in the current account. Owing to prudent economic management since early 1983 both situations are manageable. High levels of foreign reserves (over US$10 billion) and undrawn commercial borrowings of over US$2.5 billion give the Government some flexibility on the balance of payments front. Indonesia`s new tax instruments, especially the value added tax (VAT) introduced in 1985, are already indicating promising revenue potential, and will share the load with other fiscal and monetary measures in the current difficulties. Given the low current rate of inflation (5.7% for 1985/86), part of the budget deficit may also be financed through monetary expansion. In general, an appropriate policy response to the current situation may well be to do `a bit of everything`, spreading the fiscal and monetary policy mix over a variety of policy instruments. In the short and medium term, policy makers face a steeply rising debt service ratio, and the risk of provoking capital flight. Indonesia`s debt service position has worsened because the Yen has appreciated against the Rupiah by about 35% in the last 12 months, and an increasing proportion of debt is non-US$, with about one third denominated in Yen. Combined with a drastic decline in the value of oil and LNG exports, this means that Indonesia`s total public and private debt service ratio (on a gross expor basis) in 1986/87 will stand at over 30%. Despite Indonesia`s comfortable reserve position, Jakarta`s foreign exchange market suffered a strong bout of `devaluation fever` in February and March at the close of the financial year. Foreign exchange turnover levels peaked at US$ 120 million on 13 March, which is well above `normal` levels of $10-20 million per day. Turnover has since subsided to a daily average of $10 million for the first four weeks of May. These two policy constraints, the high debt-service ratio and the ever present threat of capital flight, may perhaps provoke an unnecessarily cautious approach towards government loan raising and use of foreign reserves to cover the balance of payments gap. There are already signs that Indonesia`s non-oil and gas exports will pick up a little this year, largely because of the improved economic prospects of major oil importing nations including the United States, Japan and Western Europe. Prospects for plywood and textile exports are bright, and soaring prices for coffee, which provides about 5% of non-oil and gas export revenues, will also assist the trade balance. In the short and medium term the prosperity of major western nations may help strengthen prices of other agricultural commodities. Indonesia will, of course, benefit from these developments. But its relative competitive position vis-a-vis other exporting nations will not improve unless determined efforts are made to increase efficiency in the export sector. Existing industrial and trade policies have created a high cost system for production and export with domestic producers sheltered by tariffs, quota restrictions and import licences. An economic policy `package`, announced on 6 May, gives the first indications that policy makers are now seriously addressing the issue of making exporters and their domestic suppliers more efficient and thus more competitive on world markets. Amongst the measures announced are new incentives for foreigninvestors, the replacement of the export certificate with a duty drawback system, and arrangement whereby export oriented manufacturing firms are permitted to import basic and intermediate materials and capital goods if local producers cannot offer competitive prices. Manufacturers who export ovvver 85% of their production can `automatically` import intermediate and capital goods. In both cases exporters may import directly without buying through approved importers or a sole distributor. The new policy has disadvantages, such as increased regulatory controls which may cause time-consuming delays and create fertile ground for favouritism and corruption, but it is a first step away from the present high cost system of quota restrictions and licenced importers. By itself it is not a `complete` reform. For the sake of future economic growth and a healthy balance of payments, Indonesia should now act to remove regulatory trade controls and quota restrictions. There arealready indications thet policy makers are awaiting the opportunity to do just this. Such a step would mark a real turning point towards an effective non-oil and gas export policy. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | Ross Muir, Ross Muir, David E. Hughes, Poot, Huib, Kuyvenhoven, Arie, Joan Hardjono |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 80-102 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The paper uses data from the 1976 Household Expenditure Survey (Susenas) to examine spatial patterns of poverty snd inequality in Indonesia. a number of inequality measures are computed for each province (Gini Ratio, Atkinson Index, Theil Index, L-Index) and provincial rankings according to each index are compared. Provinces are also ranked according to a number of proverty indexes, using a poverty line adjusted for differences in price levels between provinces. The correlation between selected measures of poverty and inequality is also investigated and some implications for regional development policy discussed. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 1-33 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Acceleration in the rate of decline of oil prices in early January has overtaken Indonesian policy makers, presenting them with a daunting prospect of declining tax revenues and an expanded deficit inthe balance of payments. They face a difficult and complex choice among (1) further curtailment of government expenditures, (2) increased taxes, (3) internal deficit financing and/or monetary expansion, (4) depreciation or overt devaluation of the rupiah rate of exchange , (5) accelerated borrowing abroad (or more rapid utilisation of the backlog of aid commitments), or, least desired, (6) use of direct controls on trade and exchange flows. An appropriate combination of policies is being sought to deal with the crisis. The new budget was interoduced just before the acceleration in the slide in oil prices took place, and, being calculated on the basis of an oil price of $25 per barrel, was out of date within a month of the time it was publised. By February 5 it seemed likely that a price assumption in the $15 to $20 range would be closer to reality. Each drop of $1 in the average price of Indonesia`s exported oil implies a loss of rougly $400 million in export in export earnings and Rp 300 billion in oil tax revenues; thus export earnings and tax receipts for the new fiscal year (1986/87) could decline by 25 % or more as compared to the 1985/86 budget. The new budget is very austere even in the form in which it was sent to the parliament. This is the first time under the soeharto Government that budgeted expenditures have been reduced (from Rp. 23 to 21.4 trillion, a 7% drop). The largest cuts were in the development budget (22% overall). A retrenchment of this magnitude in the face of low output growth and rising unemployment, has convinced some economists that the time has come to modify the longstanding policy of balanced budgets and to undertake a prudent amount of fiscal or monetary expansion to sustain aggregate demand, or at least cushion its fall. But faced with the inevitability of a large increase in the current account of the balance of payments, expansionary policies must be kept within limits. Routine expenditures were budgeted a modest 6% above last fiscal year. Increase in debt service outlays of Rp 664 billion account for more than nine tenths of that increase. Total debt service will axceed development revenues for the first time under the Soeharto Government. the allocation of rp 417 billion for the purchase and maintenance of the national `iron stock` of rice acquired by bulog was a large unprecendented item. salaries of public servants will rise by a mere 2 %, not enough to compensate the 1985 rate of inflation. the decline in expenditures was imposed by the Government`s established commitment to a balanced budget. An assumed price of $25 per barrel of oil implies a reduction in expected oil and gas tax reveneus of 13 %. Other interval revenues are expected to increase by 8 % as a result of the tax and tax administration reformsinitiated last fiscal year, only partial compensation for the oil tax losses. Concern about rising debt service costs and limited availability of counterpart rupiah funds led to curtailing of use of aid funds (`development revenues`)by 18%, despite a $14 billion commitments backlog. The Government`s estimates for the balance of payments for 1985/86 show a modest increase in the current account deficit, but predicted capital inflows are sufficient to allow for a small increase in foreign exchange reserves ($61 million). Estimates by a commercial firm, the Center for Policy Studies, show a drop in the current account deficit and an increase in reserves of $302 million, even though the CPS was much less optimistic about export earnings. Barring radical policy changes not yet announced, those projections are now unrealistic. A current account deficit as high as $4 billion is not entirely out of the question. Fortunately, Bank Indonesia`s reserves are high, at $5,8 billion at the end of 1985, with the commercial banks holding an additional $4.9 billion (Siregar 1986). The inflation rate for calendar 1985 was only 4.4%, and had dwindled to virtuallyzero in the fourth quarter. Narrow money continued to grow rapidly, and real monetary assets climbed both in absolute terms and relative to Gross Domestic Product. Time deposits also continued to grow at a very rapid rate, responding to real interest rates of virtually 15 % per annum. Bank credit expanded less rapidly than time deposits, but nevertheless grew at a high 16% annual rate in 1985. Agricultural production expanded rapidly in 1985, according to preliminary government figures, despite a slowdown in rice production growth. The official estimate of 26.3 million tons was less than 2% above 1984, and well below the trend rate of 4.8 %. The wighted average growth rate of physical output for 18 crops was a surprising 5.5%, but many of the individual crop preliminary estimates are clearly too high. The slower growth of rice output was still not low enough to eliminate the vexing and expensive problem of the rice surplus. Bulog has kept the support price constant for the current planting year, and has enforced quality standards, with the result that the end of year stock had diminished by nearly one million tons from the peak in September, but remained too large at two million tons. The financial burden on Bulog is to be alleviated by the government`s purchase of the iron stock, and Government will bear the expenses of maintenance of that stock in the future, as a budget item. The rural general credit program (Kupedes) which was initiated in early 1984 to replace the Bimas credit program appears to have succeeded both in terms of rapid expansion of loans and deposits by the village banking units (BRI Unit Desa), which now utilise essentially market rates of interest. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 113-122 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 34-56 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The majority of Japanese investment in Indonesia is import-substitution orientated and located primarily in manufacturing. Declining Japanese investment in recent years is attributable patly to economic factors such as the drop in the price of oil and the higher cost of imports resulting from the devaluation of /march 1983. But it is also due to Indonesian ernme policy. The author suggests a number of ways in which the Indonesian government could establish conditions more favaurable to foreign investment. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 57-87 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Smallholder dairying is attractive to agricultural policy makers in Indonesia owing to its success in the countries of South Asia. The principal constraints facing Indonesian dairing are reproduction, nutrition and marketing. The hot, humid conditions unfavourably affect the imported Friesian cows on which the industry is based, leading to low milk yields and reproductive capacity, and necessitating a continuing reliance on imported stock. Agricultural residues used for stock feed are cheap to produce and their collection provides employment in rural areas, but the nutritional value of this forage is poor. Marketing constraints for dairy products include widespread lack of refrigeration in rural areas and princes which are too high for all but the urban middle class. For intensive research on Indonesian dairying to be wortwhile, the gains in productivity attributable to research would need to be between one-quarter and one-third of present levels of milk production per lactating cow per year. It is not apparent that gains of this order are feasible. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | Jennifer Alexander, J. V. Remenyi, Toshihiko Kinoshita, Richard E. Gibson, Glassburner, Bruce |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 88-112 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The paper examines the thesis establised by Geertz and Dewey that Javanese rural trading practices, although well suited to the pasar marketing system, are maladaptive to larger scale trade. Focusing on a chili marketing depot in Java, the paper outlines the network of trading links which stretch from farmer to end-market, as well as the mechanisms of price setting and credit arrangements. The conclusions reached are that the volume and value of goods handled at this level are considerable and that both price setting and commercial relationships are largely stable. constraints on entrepreneurial activity are attributed not to a Javanese peasant ethos of `shared poverty` but to lack of capital, dispersed markets, perishable goods and discontinous information on supply of produce and current market prices. |
Unduh Dokumen Berkas PDF Utama