| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 94-101 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 25-47 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 1-24 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The 1980 boom in the Indonesian economy, propelled by massive, largely oil-finance public expenditure programs and supported by a record rice harvest, has continued into 1981. In his annual Independence Day Address, President Soeharto announced substantial upward revisions of the official estimates of Indonesia`s economic growth performance in 1980/1 and expressesd a qualified but very confident optimism about the country`s economic prospects. So far, the available economic indicators for 1981, generally speaking, remain highly favourable. Ample domestic and imported supplies of staple foods and other consumer goods, reinforced by moderate fiscal-monetary restraint, have succeeded in bringing down the rate of inflation to a single-digit annual rate. With the aid of good rains, the rice harvest is expected to be even larger than last year, and reports about other food crops, though mixed, are better than usual. Public sector investment on a huge scale, in the oil sector and other industries producing intermediate goods, is going ahead apace, and there is qualitative evidence (though few hard facts) to suggest a substantial volume of private investment largely financed by capital inflow. But there are some dark clouds on the horizon. The most immediate is a sharp fall in the world market prices of most of Indonesia`s non-oil exports which will require a downward revision of expected foreign exchange earnings this year. Even more important in the medium and longer term is the likelihood of an early re-emergence of the serious resource constraint of Indonesia`s economic growth from which the two oil price increases of 1973/4 and 1979/80 freed her for adecade. It has been apparent for some time that the volume of crude oil available for export would soon begin to decline since increases in production could not match the rapid growth in domestic consumption. Increased exports of LNG have been expected to fill much of the gap through the 1980s, but careful projections made early this year by the World Bank suggest that in the second half of the decade export earnings would be insufficient to finance import requirements of sustained economic growth, and budget revenues insufficient to finance planned public expenditure, unless major policy changes were undertaken in the next few years. Since in the longer run Indonesia`s resource balance depends very largely on the development of internationally competitive manufacturing industries, and in the meantime on the largest feasible exportable surpluses of the oil sector, special importance attaches to policies in these two areas. In the last few months, an even more sombre prospect has emerged. The World Bank projections assumed that world oil prices would continue to rise by 3 per cent a year in real terms. This has now become quite unlikely, barring some major political upheavel in the principal oil producing countries. The Indonesian Minister for Mining and Energy issued a warning in September not to expect any further rise in the price of oil. Revised projections based on a constant nominal price of oil in the next few years suggest that quite large balance of payments and budget deficits may emerge in 1982/3 and 1983/4. The proposed does not change the policy reforms needed, but it underlines their urgency. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 74-85 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | Michael R. Dove, Roger Montgomery, Arndt, H.W., G.A. Hughes, Glassburner, Bruce, Stephen L. Magiera |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 86-93 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 72-88 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 89-96 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 1-41 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Indonesia was one of only a few developing countries in Asia, according to a recent World Bank report, which showed an increase in the growth rate of GDP in 1980; Indonesia renewed its rapid growth rate, at 7.1 per cent, after the 1979 slowdown to 4.9 per cent. But, as pointed out in the May IGGI meeting, Indonesia is still a poor country by almost any standard. Seventy per cent of the people live in low quality housing. Only a quarter of urban and one per cent of rural households have access to safe drinking water supplies; a full quareter of all households possess no durable goods, not so much as a clock, a setof chairs or a cupboard; and nearly one halp have less than 85 per cent of the recommended daily allowance of calories. The sources of GDP growth arise from all three major sectors of the economy. Agricultural growth, though fluctuating, has shown satisfactory rates over the period; growth of industrial production, though lower in the past few years than early in the decade, is beginning to revive, and growth in services continues high. All three sectors appear to have benefited indirectly rather than directly from the oil boom. The rate of inflation has been kept at around 17 per cent even though money supply increased at 48 per cent. Understatement of the actual rate by the official consumer price index may be part (though probably only a small part) of the explanation. One restraint on inflation is continued under-spending of development funds. The central government`s renewed emphasis on decentralisation and efforts to channel increasing amounts of funds to provinces and kabupaten are running into constraints on absorptive capacity. The 1981/2 IGGI aid commitments remained at last year`s level of $2.1 billion, but insistence on specific proposals before making funds available is replacing earlier direct program grants, and there is more emphasis on technical assistance and on maintenance rather than on provision of new capital intensive infrastructure. The government is vigorously pursuing programs to encourage participation in development by the `economically weak`, but these programs too are running into constraints of insufficiently trained manpower. Rice production for 1981/2 is expected to exceeded last year`s record-breaking crop, and much of the credit for the success is being attributed to the new Insus intensification program which puts more stress on extension services and les on rigid input/credit packages than the Bimas program which it replaces. Other crops continue to lag. In its determination to develop the cooperatives, the Government is encouraging the KUD to take on a wide variety of functions, particularly distribution of `basic nees` items. The increased floor price of rice relative to the unchanged price of fertiliser has undoubtedly acted as an incentive to farmers. In both the KUD and Insus programs, the Government supplements the hoped-for bottom-up approach with as much top-down direction as it considers necessary to get the programs moving. Large industry has shown substantial production increases. Fertiliser, cement, construction materials, paper and chemicals are all thriving, but some consumer goods industries are doing less well. Oil production turned the corner and began again to increase after lagging for three years, but in early June the Government announced that it would no longer publish production figures. A change of personnel in Pertamina was accompanied by assurances that there would be no changes in policy towards contractors. Small industry is beginning to receive closer attention; extension and credit programs are being pursued to assist small businessmen and household industry, but lack of benchmark data and the reluctance of government to identify specific target groups (and thus be seen to be excluding others) hamper the effectiveness of a program which is thus forced to spread itself very thinly over wide range of needs. The publication abroad of a summary of an unpublished World Bank report on industry has brought out into open debate a number of crucial issues on generaleconomic as well as on specific industrial policies, such as the attitude of government toward regulation of industry and, by implication, toward the private sector as a whole. Within the country, the search for a specifically Indonesian pattern for economic development goes on, with much discussion over the meaning of a `Pancasila Economy`. What becomes increasingly clear, whether from the Bank, the technocrats, or from the more academic and philosophical approach of the Pancasila ideologues, is that massive effort to improve the educational level of the people, both in terms of quantity and of quality, is a sine qua non for the transformation of Indonesian society into one in which those who are now poor will be able to influence their welfare and the development of the nation. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | G.A. Hughes, I. Islam, R. Daroesman, Evers, Hans-Dieter, Dick, H.W. |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 42-71 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 83-107 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
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