| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 83-103 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 1-30 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Since the last survey the prospects for oil exports have continued to improve. In May, the Government announced another $2 per barrel increase for all type of Indonesian crudes, following the same move by Saudi Arabia a week earlier. The revival of exploration activities which began last year appears to continue into this year, and there is optimism that the downward production trends will be arrested if not reversed some time this year. Exports of LNG and light manufactures continue to gain in importance, though the latter remain relatively small in absolute terms and show susceptibility to domestic policies. The provisional balance of payments figures for 1979/80 show the first ever recorded current account surplus of almost $2.4 billion. Another similar surplus (but probably of smaller magnitude) for this year is a good possibility. In May, the IGGI agreed to provide $2.1 billion this year. Recent developments lend further urgency to the problem of how to use the accumulating foreign exchange reserves in a way that will best serve Indonesia`s development objectives with as little threat to short run instability as possible. Together with the 50 per cent rise in the domestic oil prices in May, increases were announced in the rates for electricity, transport services and in prices for certain controlled goods. The measure has given rise to initial cost-push impulses in the economy. The outlook for relative price stability will depend very much, apart from developments in in the international economy, on the Government`s reactions in the area of fiscal, monetary and trade policies. The constellation of events appears to demand a disciplined fiscal expenditure, Fairly lenient short-term credit policy, and more liberalised imports. Two factors that assist the achievement of reasonable price stability this year are the ample availability of foreign exchange and the apparently good rice harvest. Bulog appears to be in a strong position to hold rice prices down over the year. In the production sector, non-rice crops appear to have been stagnating, while in the manufacturing sector industries appear to have recovered from the post devaluation recession of 1979. Non oil investment activities are ahowing some signs of revival. Behind this reasonably bright short run picture, the country`s longer term development problems remain as pressing as ever. An extra $2-3 billion of foreign exchange reserves is just a scratch over the surface of these formidable long-term problems. The key issue is how to sustain the country`s capacity to finance (preferably out her own strength and resources) her development in the coming years. This, among other things, requires a longer term view regarding the management of her natural resources (which have been the prime source of relative prosperity in the past several years) so as not to waste now and regret later. In addition, there are areas 9in credit, investment and fiscal policies) where the clasic conflict between growth and equity has come into the open and requires rational long-term resolution. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 104-112 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 54-82 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | I.K.G. Bendesa, I.M. Sukarsa, Manning, Chris, T.H. Hull, Boediono, Hill, Hal |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 31-53 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 75-85 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 65-74 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 1-33 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The most important change in the economic scene during the past four months has been the transformation in the prospects for oil and LNG export receipts in the foreseeable future, confirmed by the OPEC meeting in December. Assuming that there is no equivalent to the Pertamina debt crisis of 1975 in the offing, the question of how to spend the foreign exchange windfall in a way that is most conductive to development but which does not add to inflation has now become of pressing importance. There is little evidence so far that the authorities have recognised, much less reacted to, the implications of the recent oil price rises. Oil is again becoming the dominant and most dynamic sector of production. There has already been a substantial upsurge in oil exploration and, assuming the volume of exports is maintained, oil will in 1980 effect a huge improvement in the terms of trade and real income, in the balance of payments on current account, and in budget receipts. During 1979, non-oil export earnings benefited from high prices in world commodity markets and the rapid growth of exports of manufactures from a small base. Imports were depressed by devaluation and tight fiscal and monetary policies. The current account would therefore have shown an improvement even apart from the oil price increases. Fortunately, the expansionary effects on money supply from private sector export earnings were mitigated by large private capital outlow. The potentially expansionary impact of oil sector earnings was largely neutralised by the continuation of relatively conservative domestic budget expenditures and, as a result, foreign exchange reserves began to rise, reaching $4.1 billion by the end of the year. The main features of the planned 1980/1 budget are: on the receipts side, the near doubling of oil company revenues compared with the original 1979/80 budget estimates, and a flat trend in project aid; on the expenditure side, a 50 per cent increase in wages of government employees, very large increases in the oil and food subsidies items, and a big increase in projected development budget expenditure compared with the 1979/80 estimates. The likely outturn for total expenditures and their import-content, matters of great significance for overall monetary management and inflation, remain a matter of conjecture. The budget estimates assume a rate of inflation of 10 per cent, compared with 27 per cent in 1979, and there seems to be a fairly serious commitment to a goal of 15 per cent, which looks ambitious. Outside the oil sector, the latest estimates indicate that rice production last year was 18 million tons, comfortably above the 1978 record harvest. Planned imports of rice this year are 1.85 million tons, and the early indications are that the 1979/80 wet season crop will be a good one. Activity in some manufacturing industries still seems to be slack as a result of the devaluation and tight credit during 1979. Considerable publicity has attended the negotiations on the contract to construct the Dumai hydrocracker refinery, and the financing arrangements for the planned expansions of LNG productive capacity at Bontang. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 86-91 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | It would be quite surprising to most scholars if the income distribution in Indonesia in the 1970s had not become worse. Tremendous inflows from oil, foreign aid, and private investment tended to be concentrated in capital intensive projects that did little to increase labour demand and often displaced workers in existing jobs. The government had admitted problems with corruption and project selection which could only have added to income concentration. The exchange rate, which was constant againts the dollar from 1971 to 1978 in the face of rapid domestic inflation penalised labour intensive industries and techniques. Credit and administrative policies had the effect of increasing those biases. Given all of the above, it is hard to imagine that favoured groups could have done anything but gain relative to others. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 92-93 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
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