| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 69-84 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | Clive S. Gray, LouisT. Wells Jr, V'' Ella Warren, R.M. Sundrum, McCawley, Peter, Maree Tait, Arndt, H.W., R.M. Sundrum, Howard W. Dick, Booth, Anne |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 85-113 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 50-73 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 28-49 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 74-93 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 1-27 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | No major economic policy changes have been introduced in Indonesia since the changes in banking regulations in early June, which reported and discussed in the last Survey; meanwhile the long economic recession persists. President Soeharto announced, in his Independence da Speech on August 16, that the target growth rate for total production would be 5 per cent per annum during the Fourth Five Plan, which is to be inaugurated April 1, 1984. He also specified two sectoral growth targets, namely, 9.5 per cent per annum for the agricultural sector. In his speech he called for sustained national resilience, in order to meet the challenge of reduced dependence on the oil sector, and announced that tax reform is in the offing, but he left announcement of the details of the proposed tax reform program to his Minister of Finance. The announcement of these macro-growth targets immediately led to public discussion of the implications of such modest targets (by comparison with performance in the 1970s) for employment and for the agricultural balance of payments. The implied need to alter the structure of the economy has been widely recognised, and much public attention is being given to the sort of restructuring discussed in the last Survey, but there is disagreement among the leadership concerning the extent to which the challenge can be met by increasing foreign and domestic economic openness. The tax reform draft laws have been presented to the Parliament, and the board outlines have been described publicy by Finance Minister, Radius Prawiro. These include a value addedtax (VAT), a unified and simplified income tax law, a modernised tax data processing and storage apparatus, and intensified retraining of the tax enforcement bureaucracy. Enactment of the new laws has been promised before the beginning of the next Five Year Plan and may occur as early as November or December, 1983. The Central Statistical Bureau (BPS) published the preliminary National Income statistics for 1982 in August. They serve primarily to document with somewhat greater precision what was already generally known about the recession. GDP growth (in constant 1973 prices) was only 2.25 per cent, barely exceeding the BPS population growth projection for the 1980-85 period (2.21 per cent per annum). The decline in oil production by 16.5 per cent was the most adverse element, but non-petroleum GDP growth was only 3.8 per cent. Food crop production increased by only 1.5 per cent over 1981. The BPS also published new population projections in July, which indicate that population for the year 2000 will be 223 million, and show a gradual decline in the overall rate of growth to less than 2.0 per cent only in the last five years of the century-although President Soeharto in his State Address expressed the expectation that the rate would fall below 2.0 per cent before the end of Repelita IV (1988/1989). Monetary growth over the past 12 months has been less than 7 per cent, and the annual rate of inflation since the post-devaluation surge in April has fallen back to single digit levels. Banks and banking policy makers are still in the process of adjustment to the June regulations, although without apparent major difficulty in doing so. Banks are highly liquid, and credit demand is slack. The recent published balance of payments data for fiscal year 1982/1983 show both exports and imports lower than anticipated, but the current account deficit, at $6.7 billion, was virtually as predicted. A second fiscal year deficit in excess of $6 billion appears inevitable for 1983/1984, althought trade data recently published for the first semester of 1983 show improvement. Drought continues to make the prospects for 1983 agricultural production bleak. Little, if any, increase in rice output is expected in calender 1983 as compared with 1982, and imports of 1.7 to 2. 0 million tons are anticipated, along with some draw-down of Bulog stocks. Rain fell in Jakarta on October 1 for the first time in two months, perhaps a harbinger that this year the October rains would be on time and allow for a normal planting for the wet season. The wereng pest, biotype 3, has been reported attacking rice in five provincies, and new resistant varieties are being rushed to forestall major damage. Ambitious plans have been announced for expansion of oil palm planting to increase palm production more than seven-fold in a decade`s time. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 106-112 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | Joachim Metzner, Paul H. Jones, Glassburner, Bruce, Poffenberger, Mark, Henk Knipscheer et al, Warr, Peter G., Arndt, H.W. |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 94-104 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 60-82 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The roles of the cooperative, private and state enterprise sectors are central to the issues of economic ownership and control. Both the Sukarno and Soeharto Governments havedeclared that the roles of the state and cooperative sectors are important, but the Soeharto government has moved to decrease the role of state enterpricesand has greatly increased the role of private (including foreign) enterprises in the economy. This role has been increased to about the degree recommended by Sumitro, less than that advocated by Sjafruddin, but more than that suggested by Hatta. The Soeharto Government, like Hatta and Sjafruddin, considers it possible to control private enterprises without owning them. Both the Soeharto and Sukarno Governments have given support to the development of cooperatives, but neither government has followed Hatta in promoting the organisation of large enterprises as cooperatives. Policies under both Sukarno and Soeharto have discouraged competition and encouraged a more monopolistic market structure, especially in the manufacturing sector. Indonesian economists have generally supported these polocies, although Sjafruddin would probably have advocated fewer restrictions on competition. Three major ways used by the present government to restrict competition are (a) restrictions on the licensing of new manufacturing firms and on increases in the capacity of existing ones, (b) import quotas, and (c0 the promotion of industry associations. These policies have probably adversely affected allocative and technical efficiency and retarded the rate of economic growth and employment. Under the Soeharto Government there has been substantial directintervention in the economy, but much les than under Sukarno. There has also been less discrimination againts exports under Soeharto, although it is still considerable. Effective rates of protection (ERPs) vary widely from sector to sector with little apparent pattern, although ERPs of the manufacturing industries are generally higher than in other sectors. This implicit subsidisation of the manufacturing sector is in accordance with the views of Sumitro, Sarbini and Sjafruddin. These policies have also resulted in less allocative efficiency and a slower rate of economic growth and employment than might otherwise have been the case. The full potential for gains from international trade has not been realised. However, these policies have made the country less dependent on international trade and made the input-output table more complete. The present government`s international trade policies are in accordance with the thinking of the early Indonesian economist, who placed little emphasis on realising potential gains from trade other than to finance imports of goods which could not be produced domestically. Between the 1930s and the early and mid-1950s, industrial relations improved from the viewpoint of employed workers. Indonesian policy makers in the early 1950s generally thought that the unequal positions of Indonesian employers and labourers in the labour market could be corrected by the types of measures adopted at that time. However, restraints on the political freedoms accorded to trade unions were increasingly tightened in the late 1950s and early 1960s, and there have been relatively few liberalisations of policy during the period since the late 1960s. In 1979 the Soeharto Government officially made an increase in equity the most important basic economic objective. It was elucidated by the `eight paths to equity`, some of which had been advocated by Hatta in 1953. The traditional neo-clasical economists` approach towards increased equity in incoe distribution was (and is) generally rejected by the early Indonesian economists and the present Government. Instead, the emphasis on achieving equity is through controlover the pattern of government expenditures, the extension of credit and the imposition of restrictions on the economic activity of non-indegenous and non-`economically wek groups`. Use of these methods generally has had a more adverse effect on the rate of economic growth than the neo-classical economic method, although this has not always been the case. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 1-26 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The last survey was written when a further sharp drop in Indonesia`s oil export earnings was imminent and a devaluation of the rupaih likely. The March OPEC decision to cut the price of crude oil by $5 per barrel brought to head an economic crisis inflicted upon Indonesia by deterioration in the external economic environment-the world oil glut and the recession in the major industrial countries. The Indonesian Government has reacted promptly and incisively. The last survey described the austerity budget introduced in January, before the oil price cut, and some of the steps taken to compensate for the decline in export earnings by additional borrowing abroad. The oil price cut demanded more drastic measures to keep the budget and balance of payments situation under control. On 30 March, the rupiah was devalued by 28 per cent, the rate to the US dollar being fixed, for the time being, at Rp 970. Various policy decisions were taken to limit the inevitable inflationary effects, including a relatively tight monetary policy aimed party at reversing the pre-devaluation capital outlow. In May, the Government announced that four large public sector projects, estimated to cost $5 billion, would be deferred and that further rephasing of projects would follow a serching review of the public investment program now under way. These decisions, which must have taken a good deal of political courage, promise to deal adequately with the immediate problems for 1983/4. Some relief may also come from incipient recovery overseas which has begun to raise the depressed world market prices of some of Indonesia`s non-oil export commodities and from evidence that the drought has had less serious effects on food production than was feared some months ago. GDP growth which, after several years at 7-8 per cent, fell to 2-3 per cent in 1982 isexpectyed to pick up later this year and perhaps reach 5 per cent in 1984. But a very large problem remains if Indonesia is to maintain through the 1980s and beyond anithing like the rate of economic growth and development achieved during the 1970s with the aid of the oil windfall. While world (real) oil prices may well resume their upward trend towards the end of the decade, exportable surpluses will diminish, and could possibly vanish, during the 1990s. Indonesia, therefore, cannot expect the oil sector ever again to provide resorces for development on the scaleof the 1970s. Nor can Indonesia afford for long to run a current account balance of payments deficit at the present rate. To achieve greater reliance on domestic resources will require major efforts to close the balance of payments gap by efficient import substitution and promotion of non-oil exports, including manufactures, and to attain a high rate and better use of domestic savings to finance the investment needed for growth of income and employment. To the latter objective, a decision substantially to deregulate bank credit and interest rates, announced on 2 June, could make a valuable contribution. |
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