| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 63-85 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 1-23 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The months covered by this survey, June to September, have brought no major changes in economic conditions or prospects. The depreciation of the rupiah with the dollar has done little to improve the balance of payments prospects because it has been associated with a considerable adverse change in Indonesia`s terms of trade. While the price of oil has remained unchanged, and the prices of most non-oil exports have held up well, in terms of US dollars, their purchasing power over Indonesian imports, largely from countries whose currencies have appreciated, has declined. The latest official balance of payments estimates put the expected rise in international reserves in 1978/9 at $250-300 million. This may be somewhat improved by unexpected savings on imports of rice. Ample rains and more effective control of the wereng plague have assured two bountiful rice harvests this year. An estimated 11 per cent increase on last year in rice production should help stabilise prices while raising farm incomes and also save foreign exchange on rice imports. Reports on production of other food crops are less encouraging. Oil production, after holding up during the first five months, showed the expected drop in June, July and August, but the effect on export earnings was partly offset by rising exports of LNG. The longer-term prospect of declining exportable surpluses of oil has directed Government attention to all aspects of energy policy, but steps to encourage economy in domestic consumption by raising prices of oil products are proving as difficult politically as in other countries. Domestic investment and bank credit continue to give evidence of some improvement in the business climate, and the lebaran holiday period saw substantial increases in the Jakarta cost of living index in July and August, after six months of near stability. But September brought a fall with declining food prices. With money supply growing more slowly than in any year since 1959, inflation is well under control. The President`s State Addrress of 17 August contained the first pronouncements on official thinking about the Third Five Year Plan, Repelita III, which will come into operation on 1 April 1979. The main features are overall growth targets for the economy lower, but only slightly lower, than the average achieved during Repelita II, the years of the oil bonanza, and a strong emphasis on equity in distribution and other social objectives. Some are questioning how far these two features are reconciable. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 52-62 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 24-51 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 86-93 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | Colin MacAndrews, Fachurrozie S.A., C. Chandrasekaran, Sam Soeharto, Glassburner, Bruce, Mears, Leon A., Arndt, H.W., Roger Montgomery, Booth, Anne |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 94-103 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 70-84 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 1-33 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The last Survey emphasised that Indonesia`s oil boom has ended, in the sense that economic growth based on rapidly rising foreign exchange earnings is no longer in prospect. The events of the one-third year which has passed since that writing reflect that fact. Indications are that, although aggregate real growth recovered well in 1976 and 1977 from the trough of 1975, sustained output growth in the 7-7.5 per cent range, as intended by policy-makers for the Third Plan period, may be an overly optimistic expectation. Political events, which occasional overtones of economic significance, have dominated the scene inthe past four months. Despite the political turbulence of January and February, the Presidential election in March resulted, as expected, in President Suharto being unanimously re-elected for another five-year term. A new Cabinet has been installed which, superfificially at least, appears to be more `technocratic` than ever, albeit with something of a factional division among the technocrats. Work on the Third Five Year Plan has been delayed pending resolution of these political events, but was getting into high gear by the end of May. Earlier pessimism concerning this year`s rice situation has been moderated by an apparently good wet season harvest and the strong stock position of the National Logistics Agency, Bulog. However, Indonesia`s heavy dependence on rice imports is taken for granted for the foresesable future, and the rapid rise in rice prices on world markets, in combination with the anticipated slowing of growth of export earnings,may foreshadow a reconsideration of exchange rate policy. Indonesia`s export performance in 1977 was very good, due largely to excellent prices for many categories of exports. Several key prices have fallen rapidly in recent months, however. The reduced levels of inflation attained in late 1977 and early 1978 have generally been maintained, although a sharp increase in April has been a cause for some concern. The publication of the Inter-Censal Survey reveals the startling and welcomenews that fertility rates in Java and Bali have declined by very large percentages. Oil production and export earnings remain strong and exploration shows signs of modest recovery. However both production and marketing expectations are subdued. Industrial investment applications shows signs of revival, but the automobile assembly industry, automobile components, textiles and various other industries are reported operating far below capacity as the industrial recession continues. The anti-corruption campaign claims thousands of arrests anda widening deterrent effect. The May meeting of IGGI resulted in a 7.8 increase in Official Development Assistance for the present fiscal year. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 34-69 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 102-111 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
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