| Abstraksi Narasi |
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By the time this survey is read, Indonesia will have had its first general elections for sixteen years. As it is being written, the election campaign accupies much of the attention of the country`s leadership, officialdom, and press. the general expectation is that the new non-party created by the government for its support, the so-called `functional Groups`(golkar), will get enough votes to command, together with 100 appointed members, a working majority in the national Assembly over the other two main party groups, the old Nationalist Party (PNI) on the left and the Moslem parties on the right. But there is much public cynicism about the methods by which this majority will be achieved, a cynicism which will detract from the value of the elections to the Government, as an act of legitimisation and expression of public support, even if it is partly or largely unwarranted . On the other hand, the elections are not expected to weaken the government or bring a change of course in its economic and other politices. All the parties have proclaimed their support for President Suharto and for the economic program embodied in Repelita, the Five Year Plan.
There are few major economic developments to record. Statistics published in recent months generally confirm the impressive performance of most sectors of the Indonesian economy during 1970, particularly the encouraging growth in rice production, the good results for oil and other export industries, and the marked increase in industrial production and in building and construction, evidence of accelerating investment activity.
These trends are continuing. Another good season promises a further substantial increase in rice production, possibly matching the ambitious target for the third year of Repelita. The rate of new foreign investment applications has been slowing downsomewhat, but many projects in mining, forestry, manufacturingand other industries approved in the past three years are now well on the way. The rehabilitation of the traditional estate and smallholder export industries is inevitably a slow process, but there is encouraging progress in some fields, such as the new crumb rubber processing industry. Industrial production continues to increase, thogh import smugling remains a major problem. The oil industry is expected to record another substantial increase in output this year, as well as to benefit from the large rise in world crude oil prices.
At the April meeting in Amsterdam of the IGGI consortium, the donor countries confirmed their earlier acceptance in principle of the Indonesian request for $640 million for 1971/2, but the actual and tentative commitments by individual donors added up to rather less than this figure, and a good deal less for program aid. Langging sales of some credit foreign exchange and the prospect that, with increasing domestic rice production Indonesia`s food aid needs will decline, may reduce the actual flow of aid this year consirerably below the target figure. This should not seriously affect the balance of payments since reduced food aid affects both sides of the account. But it threatens a shortfall in counterpart funds which provide much of the finance for the development budget and therefore adds to concern about an already difficult budgetary situation. the handsome gain to the government in oil revenues from the rise in the rise in the price of oil may this year fill the gap,but the problem of adequate finance for development looms for the future.
Institutional reform is largely hanging fire pending the elections, but some important legislative measures have been passed by Parliament and significant administrative reforms are going ahead. an intriguuing by-product of the elections is a preliminary tally of last year`s populatioan count which, if any reliance can be placed on it, suggests a substantially smaller population total and rate of growth since the 1961 census than had bee assumed. |
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