| Abstraksi Narasi |
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In the past four months progress has once again been reported in many areas of production and some branshes of administration, but the rice situation and the rising cost of living have continued to cause serious concern.
The threat to stability posed by the rice crisis of late 1972 was successfully kept within bounds by adequate imports through the paceklik season. Rice prices declined somewhat from their January peak and there were forecasts of a substantially better harvest in 1973 than last year. But the prospects for domestic procurement of rice to meet the needs of the public sector and to build up and adequate beffer stock-in the face of much smaller import supplies likely to be available-were seriously jeopardised by a scheme to entrust the task of rice processing and marketing to a suddenly created network of rural cooperatives.
Despite the decline in rice prices in the early months of 1973, the cost of living continued to rise at a disturbing rate. Repercussions of the 1972 rice crisis on wage costs may have been a factor for a while. But the main cause in recent months was probably inflation imported from abroad and reinforced by the devaluation of the rupiah (with the US dollar) in February. Indonesia appeared to be suffering from cost-push inflation, though a continuing high rate of increase of domestic money supply, partly fed by capital inflow, almost certainly contributed on the side of demand.
The steep rise in the prices of almost all of Indonesia`s major exports gave a further fillip to the balance of payments. While imports also rose rapidly, Indonesia enjoyed a growing surplus in the balance of merchandise trade-though not of course on current account as a whole-and, for the first time in twenty years, significantly positive net international reserves.
The balance of payments position was also strengthened by continued growth in the volume of exports of oil and minerals, timber and some other products.
The conjunctur of a better rice harvest, booming exports and further expansion of investment and production in most sectors promised to make 1973 a year of relatively high rate of economic growth.
With the beginning of the 1973/4 fiscal year on 1 April, Indonesia entered upon the last year of its first Five Year Plan. Preparations for the second Repelita, due to come into operation on 1 April 1974, were entering the final, hectic phase. With some shifts of emphasis, especially towards urgent social objectives, the new Plan was expected to follow the broad development strategy of the first. But thinking about the Plan was focusing on some of the policy dilemmas facing the new Development Cabinet in the next few years. |
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