| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 141-171 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Market confidence has declined further because of increasing political uncertainty and inconsistent implementation of policy. Mistrust between key institutions such as the IMF and Indonesian policy makers has depeened with the emergence of problems of governance and transparency, controversial suggestions for new bond issues, delays in the devestment of assets controlled by IBRA (the bank restructuring agency), and disagreements over proposed amendments to the central bank law. International support for Indonesia has waned, and there is a clear tendency on the part of the IMF to involve itself more and more in the micro management of economic policies. Economic growth as slowed, and a near-term rebound seems unlikely. The rupiah depreciated by around 18% in the first half of 2001; inflation is now of the order of 11%; and interest rates are again on the rise. Monetary policy will need to be tightened, which will result in further increases in interest rates in the short term. There is much opposition to such an outcome, but the longer adjustment is postponed the more difficult it will be later. Deteriorating economic conditions have made it necessary to revise the current budget, building in assumptions of slower growth, higher inflation, a weaker exchange rate and higher interest rates. A number of fiscal reforms, including tax increases and the implementation of energy price rises originally planned for April, result in the revised budget deficit being little different from thet originally planned, however. whether the new figure is realistic depends crucially on progress with privatisation and with asset sales by the bank restructuring agency. The bank restructuring program has resulted in state dominance of the bankir sector. Bank lending is still at a low level, partly because bank are constrained by the requirement to increase their capital adequacy, and partly because they have been inadequately recapitalised. New messure will need to be taken soon to increase their capital. Ideally this will come from the private sector, but even new injections of government equity might be a cheaper option than closing more banks and paying off their depositors. Additional mergers of banks are not likely to be helpful. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 207-231 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Though Indonesia had been making considerable progress in expanding its education system before the economic crisis broke in 1997, 30% of children were still failing to complete primary school, and the quality of education was far from satisfactory. The economic crisis threatened to lead to massive dropout, and social safety net programs were therefore introduced. This paper outlines issues facing primary and secondary education before and during the crisis, assesses the extent to which the social safety net programs have helped to limit dropout, and discusses longer-term issues in achieving the goal of nine years` universal basic education, raising educational quality and achieving increased equity of access. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 173-181 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 183-188 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 189-205 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Government officials and policy analysts maintain that Indonesia`s civil servants are poorly paid, and have been for decades, a conclusion that is supported by anecdotal evidence and casual empiricism. In this paper, the relationship between government and private convensation levels is systematically analysed using evidence from two large household data sets, the 1998 Sakernas and the 1999 Susenas. The Results suggest that government workers with a high school education or less representing three-quarters of the civil service, earn a pay premium over their private sector counterparts. Civil servant with more than a high school education earn less than they would in the private sector but, on average, the premium is far smaller than is commonly alleged, and is in keeping with public/private differentials in other countries. The results prove robust to varying econometric spesifications and cast doubt the proposition that low pay is an explanationfor government corruption. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | Tarence H. Hull, Deon Filmer, David L. Lindauer, Jamie Mackie, Thee, Kian Wie, Peter Hagul, Jones, Gavin W., Pangestu, Mari, Miranda Swaray Goeltom, Gitte Heij |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 253-258 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Underlying the hopes and plans for democratic decentralisation in Indonesia are a series of assumptions about the availability, adequacy and use of statistical data, both locally and nationally. While the government does not question the need for data to define welfare needs, it has yet to clarify the mechanisms by which information can be generated and transmitted to relevant decision makers in a democratic and decentralised Indonesia. This paper argues the need to restructure and strengthen national statistical collections. At the outset of decentralisation the major statistical organisations were seriously under-funded, and most line departments were burdened with contradictory and inefficient approaches to the collection of operational and financial information for planning and monitoring. Without significant and immediate reform, the information Indonesia needs to develop the economy and the new democratic polity will deteriorate in quantity and quality. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 43-64 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | This paper examines the impact of the Asian financial crisis on children in Indonesia. Specifically, data from four rounds of the 100 villages survey are use to examine to changes in scholl attendance rates, child labour force participation and helath status. The paper also examines ways in which households are coping with the crisis. The finding provide little evidence that the crisis has had a dramatic negatif impact on children. School attendance dropped slightly after the onset of the crisis but has since rebounded to higher than pre-crisis levels. Fewer children are now working, although the older children who are working and not attending school seem to be working longer hours. Comparisons of child health status indicators over time are complicated by changes in the questionnaire but appear to show a relatively stable pattern of child health. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 7-41 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The year 2000 saw a divergence of economic and political trends. The real economy performed better than expected, with growth of 4.8% for the calender year. Despite pressures of inflation, rising interest rates and a falling rupiah, there was strong economic recovery. The political trend, however, has been far worse than anyone expected. Indonesia no longer has either a credible or an affective government. Presiden Abdurahman Wahid, hwo after his first 100 days had begun 2000 amids popular goodwill (Smith 2001) squandered his political capital and by February 2001 was under parliamentary censure and politiclly isolated. during 2000 the view gained credence that there was a `decoupling` of economics and politics. The economy remained buoyant despite political turmoil and poor government. However, the economic costs showed up in exchange rate depreciation, rising inflation and higher interest rates. These will bite harder in 2001. Nevertheless, fro all its problems, in the first half of 2001 the Indonesian economy still has its best chance in the foreseeable future to move beyond recovery into sustained growth is not fundamentally an economic problem. In the normal course of events, investment would accelerate in 2001 as capacity limits are reached in domestic and export industries. The problem of sustainability is political drag rathe than lack of economic momentum. Poor government, worsening corruption and political tormoil in Jakarta, worsening insecurity in the regions, and the many unpredictabilities associated with the centralisation, are increasing risk and uncertainty and destroying investor confidence. Deteriorations of the already poor business climate is also making it much harder to resolve the banking crisis, carry out corporate restructuring and service the massive public debt. If by mid year there is no better government, continuing slowdown in North America adn Europr and further stagnation in Japan, the prospects for late 2001 are and economy slowing to a growth rate of less than 4% p.a., barely enough to maintain living standards. The elite faces a historic political choice between either a virtuous cycle of recovery and expansion, which requires economic and political disipline, or a vicious circle of economic slowdown and political infighting. One path leads gradually to prosperity, the other more quickly to mass poverty. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 113-115 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 117-118 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
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