| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 67-92 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Subroto, Professor at the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia (FEUI), is one of the architects of the economic policies that brought growing prosperity to Indonesia over the New Order years. Educated in Dutch colonial and Japanese occupation schools, he joined Indonesia`s independence struggle, and latee studied economics at FEUI, McGill University, MIT, and Stanford and Harvard Universities. He taught international economics and business cycles at FEUI and was Secretary of the Faculty. With Widjojo Nitisastro, Mohammad Sadli, Ali Wardhana and Emil Salim, Subroto was appointed a Personal Economic Adviser to General (later President) Soeharto`s new government in 1966. In 1968 he joined the Department of Trade, and later was minister of departments responsible for transmigration, cooperatives, mining and energy. After a 17-year ministeral career serving in four consecutive cabinets, Subroto was Secretary General of APEC for six years from 1988. He remains active in Indonesia`s nongovernmental Indonesian Institute for Energy Economic (IIEE), writing on energy problems, and is also Rector of the private Pancasila University in South Jakarta. As part of our accasional series of interviews with economists who have helped shape New Order Indonesia, Professor Subroto talked with Chris Manning and Thee Kian Wie of the Bulletin`s Editorial Board about his experience as a cabinet minister and as Secretary General of OPEC, and about his views on Indonesia`s economic development, particularly its energy problems. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 121-142 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | This paper provides industry-of-origin comparative estimates of real output and labour productivity in the Indonesian and Australian manufacturing sectors. It makes binary comparisons for the benchmark year 1987, and extrapolates the 1978 benchmark backward and forward using national time series, to derive comparisons for the yaers 1975-90. Expressed in purchasing power parities` (PPPs) the gross value of output and value added in Indonesian manufacturing in 1987 was 40% and 34% of the respective Australian levels. In 1987 the Indonesian manufacturing price level was 74% of the Australian level, and Indonesian manufacturing labour productivity was 16% of that in Australia. 1975 to 1990 was a period of catch-up. The Indonesian manufacturing price level declined from 105% to 60% of the Australian level, while labour productivity increased from 12% to 17% of the Australian level. The catch-up was greater from the early 1980s onwards. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | Diah Widarti, W.F. Shepherd, A. Szirmai, D.S. Prasada Rao, Subroto, Resosudarmo, Budy P., Thorbecke, Erik, Colin Johnson, David C. Cole, Betty F. Slade |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 93-120 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | This study seeks to identify the determinants of female labour force participation (FLFP), by assessing the influence of a set of sociodemographic, economic and cultural factors on educational class differentials in the LFP of married women in Jakarta. A J-shaped pattern of association between education and FLFP is prevalent in many developing countries: less educated women often show LFP rates close to those of well educated women, whereas moderately educated women have lower rates. The study concludes that education is a strong determinant of women`s participation in the Jakarta labour force. The J-Shaped pattern of association between education and FLFP persisted after standardisation by age, although it was less marked than the literature suggests. Few variables were consistently significant for all educational classes, with a different mix of variables influencing FLFP in each group. Children below five living at home, however, had a significant negative association with FLFP in all educational classes. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 95-120 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Despite 20 years of sustained economic growth that saw provincial GDPs rise and inequalities in per capita provincial GDPs fall, per capita income disparities among provinces persist. In this paper we present evidence that poor provinces have tended to catch up with middle- and high-income provinces, but the regions at the top and bottom of the distribution in 1975 finished in similar positions in 1993. Investments in human capital (education and health) seem to be the most effective way of increasing provincial incomes and reducing the disparities in provincial GDP per capita. The poorer provinces and rural areas can grow faster than the richer ones because they can gain the most from better health and education, as they have the highest rates of illiteracy, fertility, and infant, child and maternal mortality. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 3-54 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The period of this Survey, from early October 1997 to early February 1998, was marked by a deepening financial crisis that begam as a seemingly simple currency problem and was progressively aggravated by the extraordinary depreciation of the rupiah. On 22 January 1998 the currency fell to a record low of about Rp17,000/$. This amounted to a devaluation of more than 80% since it was floated on 14 August 1997. To ordinary Indonesians, the rupiah`s value seems to have fallen even more dramatically--each dollar has become six times more expensive. The crisis has exposed the country`s weak financial system and brought the economy to a halt. The stock market has collapsed, national banks are in serious trouble, and the international ratings of the larger banks have fallen below `junk` status, while increasing numbers of local companies face bankruptcy. In the third quarter of 1997 economic growth slowed to 3.4% (on an annualised basis). This was significantly below the first semester`s growth rate of 7.3%. Preliminary estimates suggest that in the fourth quarter of 1997 the country`s economic growth rate was 0%. Prices increased by 6% in the last four months of the year alone, resulting in double-digit inflation for the whole year. In January 1998 they jumped by 6.9%, the highest monthly increase in 15 years, surpassing even the increase for the whole of 1996 (6.5%). Workers are being laid off in large numbers, especially from industrial and construction activity. In September and October, problems caused by the currency crisis were exacerbated by widespread forest fires that lasted for months, and by a prolonged E1 Nino-induced drought. The economic cost and the damage to public health and the natural environment are huge and their long-term implications unknown. During the latter part of the Survey period, efforts at resolving the financial crisis itself were complicated by the political transition, with the approach of the General Session of the People`s Consultative Assembly (MPR) to elect the President and Vice President for a new five-year term. In an attempt to overcome the crisis the government sought the assistance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), at an earlier stage than Thailand had done or Korea was to do. On 31 October 1997 Indonesia concluded an agreement with the IMF. Governments from a number of countries in the region also extended financial assistance, and a total financial package of $43 billion was made available to Indonesia in the form of standby loans. With concerted intervention by Bank Indonesia (BI), the Bank of Japan and the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the rupiah strengthened and began to stabilise in early November, but this lasted only two weeks before the currency began a free fall as confidence was shattered. A new agreement was negotiated with the IMF and a much strengthened economic reform program was announced on 15 January 1998. The market again reacted negatively, unable to see a clear program to address either the problems that had brought the banking system to the brink of collapse, or private sector short-term external debt, which continued to exert strong downward pressure on the rupiah. The causes and depth of the crisis in Indonesia need to be explained. A careful analysis of the sequence of events suggests that it all began through a contagion effect from the crisis in Thailand, but that once the markets began to scrutinise the domestic economy they became aware of vulnerabilities and anomalies within (Lindbland 1997). From then on things appear to have been mishandled, leading to a progressive deterioration of market and public confidence in the rupiah, and in the government`s ability to handle the crisis. The political uncertainties surrounding the succession added to the collapse in confidence. Following the dramatic fall in the rupiah on 22 January 1998, a series of measures to implement the reform program were introduced. The government announced steps to rehabilitate the banking sectorand to assist in resolving the private sector`s short-term external debt problem. These measures helped strengthen and stabilise the rupiah, albeit still at about Rp 10,000/$. The currency needs to strengthen to about Rp 5,000/$,an exchange rate regarded as realistic, and assumed in formulating the revised 1998/99 state budget. This is a tall order, but implementation of the key elements of the reform program agreed with the IMF could achieve it. Though the IMF opposed it, the establishment of a currency board system was under consideration during the Survey period. President Soeharto has now been re-elected for a seventh term. The IMF has announced it is postponing the release of the second tranche of financial assistance because Indonesia has failed to implement aspects of the reform packages. There have been widespread protests, both at university campuses and in regional centres; the latter often target ethnic Chinese retailers who have become scapegoats for public anger about the effects of the crisis. Meanwhile resentment against the IMF and foreign governments, especially the US, is on the rise. It is feared that Indonesia may go down the path of disengagement from the global economy. There are few choices left to the government. Unless the standoff with the IMF can be resolved and the key IMF reforms can proceed, the consequences for economic policy making, for political stability and for the wellbeing of the Indonesian people will be grave. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 121-137 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Although Indonesia has placed a considerable percentage of its land and coastal areas under protection, it has to date failed to provide adequate management, particularly of its national parks. This is due to a number of factors, both organisational and financial. Using studies of recent attempts to introduce more effective management in two major Indonesian national parks, this article looks at what kinds of changes are needed to strengthen the present park management system. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | Manning, Chris, Junankar, P.N., Colin MacAndrews, Soesastro, Hadi, Jorge Garcia Garcia, Lana Soelistianingsih |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 55-93 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | This paper examines structure and change in unemployment in Indonesia from the 1970s through to 1996. The analysis focuses on high unemployment rates among urban youth, set in the context of similar problems experienced in other developing countries. It also deals with some of the conceptual and measurement issues. It is concluded that high youth unemployment is partly a queuing phenomenon among middle class families, related to processes of job search and wage structure. But rates of under-utilisation are also high among children of poorer households in the working age population. Over time, the paper finds considerable stability in the structure of unemployment, with some tendency for overall rates to increase. Some rises in unemployment were experienced by youth with either low educational status or tertiaty qualifications, and by women. Explanations include increased minimum wages and a slowdown in manufacturing activity, although changing definitions have also played a part. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 53-55 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 3-34 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 35-52 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The dramatic fall of the rupiah has been driven largely by panic, rather than by careful analysis of Indonesia`s economic fundamentals. the catalyst for the panic appears to have been a sudden reassessment of the exchange rate risk faced by unhedged domestic firms and foreign investors. This reassessment was triggered by the abrupt decision of the Thai government to float the baht. The policy focus now must be on helping the private sector adjust to the floating rate environment, and aiming to maintain economic growth. Belt-tightening measures are counterproductive in these circumstances. The process of adjustment might be assisted by aclearly articulated decision by the government for Bank Indonesia (BI) to divest itself rapidly of a large portion of its foreign exchange assets, given that its need for them is greatly diminished in a genuinely floating regime. |
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