| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 101-112 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Indonesia`s exports of plywood are the largest in the world and a leading source of foreign exchange earnings. Although the industry`s growth has been rapid, several studies indicate that it has been subsidised both directly and indirectly. What are the prospects for Indonesia to offset these subsidies by raising plywood prices as its share of key import markets grows? This paper sheds light on this question by analysing econometrically the United States` imports of Indonesian plywood from July 1979 to December 1986, using a monthly import demand model. The results suggest that Indonesia`s rapid expansion into the US plywood market has been due primarily to its low plywood prices, and that attempts to raise prices relative to those of competing export regions would result in significant reductions in market share. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 85-100 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Improving the quality of Indonesia`s coffee exports has been a priority of government and the Association of Indonesian Coffee Exporters for some years. Efforts to achieve this objective have, however, been hampered by misconceptions about the reasons why coffe producers and traders at each point in the marketing network do not deliver a higher quality product. The research reported here shows that price premia for higher quality coffee are not large enough to encourage greater quality enhancement. The world market for low to medium grades, used in the production of instant coffee, is much larger than that for high-quality coffee, and this preference in transmitted in the form of low incentives to improve the product. Failure to understand this has led to government policies which at best do not solve the quality problem and at worst exacerbate. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 3-38 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The Indonesian Government continues to grapple with the consequences of the unexpected economic boom of 1989-90, while at the same time maintaining the momentum of economic growth and structural adjustment. Although there is less concern with inflation and external imbalance than six months ago, prices have risen than expected in the past year and the current account deficit will exceed $4 billion in 1991/92. Deflationary monetary and fiscal policies which have reportedly contributed to considerable business and banking sector distress have been associated with slower economic growth in 1991. Nevertheless, by early 1992 the economy had returned to a more even keel after adjusting to the second `Sumarlin shock` in February 1991 (Parker 1991, pp. 10-12) and the controls on overseas borrowing introduced in September. In recent months public attention and policy debates have focused on the potential deflationary effects of monetary policy. This is in contrast to much greater concern with overheating and the current account deficit earlier in the year (Nasution 1991; Muir 1991). In particular, continuing rapid non-oil export growth in the second half of 1991 and decisive action in postponing some of the megaprojects have removed fears of a major blowout in the current account in 1991/92. The government has continued to resist any significant relaxation of monetary policy, despite pressure from business and the banking sector. It is expected, however, that the `tough` budget brought down on January 7 will provide the macroeconomic managers with an opportunity to loosen monetary policy in the first half of 1992. Although achievement of domestic tax revenue targets for 1992/93 will permit a small increase in total spending in real terms, the budget will probably have a slight contractionary effect on domestic economic activity. Economic growth was adversely affected by the drought and a fall in rice production in 1991. This caused considerable stress and probably contributed to a stagnation in real wages in a range of activities, in contrast to quite rapid increases in the early 1980s. The macroeconomic effects of declining rice production are likely to be small, however, bacause of continued diversification of the economy and the agricultural sector, and speedy government response to the production shortfall. Moreover, despite stagnation in real wages, the incidence of proverty continued to decline in the late 1980s. This paradox can be explained in part by the continuing rapid structural transformation of the economy, shifts in employment ti higher productivity activities and markedly higher female labour force participation rates than a decade earlier. Nevertheless, strong employment growth in manufacturing export activities has been accompanied by a significant increase in labour unrest in 1991. This raises broader questions about the distributional impact of rapid structural change and the export boom. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 39-66 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | This paper examines the development of the Indonesian aircraft industry. Despite the accumulation of considerable engineering and production capabilities, technical competence has not been a sufficient condition for commercial success. An important reason for the asymmetry between technical accomplishment and performance is underdeveloped managerial capacity. This case raises questions about the viability of policies intended to promote technological `catch up` in complex industries. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | Ross Chapman, David McKendrick, Manning, Chris, Ricardo Godoy, Christopher P.A. Bennett, Ida-Bagus P. Parthama, Jeffrey R. Vincent |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 67-84 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | In evaluating the widespread trade liberalisation that has occured in Indonesia since 1983, it is important not to lose sight of the uneveness of many of the reform, both intra- and inter-industry, that have been implemented. Different industry structures help to account for the different degrees of reform delivered within and between industries. This paper examines the extent and implications of the liberalisation process in two structurally diverse industries-- steel and footwear. One objective of this paper is to illustrate the consequences for competitiveness of the reform sequence and the instruments of reform; another is to highlight the impediments to further progress. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 55-88 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | Since 1987 a dramatic increase in both domestic and foreign investment in Indonesia, most of it in export-oriented activities, has occurred in response to improvements in a previously unattractive investment climate and in the country`s trade regime. Most striking has been the rise in investment by Asia`s four newly-industrialising countries (NICs): Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. This paper analyses the factors contributing to this increase and the investment patterns of the four countries. It then focuses on investment in the manufacturing sector, where most of the NIC investments have taken place. The relative importance of each country as a source of investment in individual sector and industries is examined. The paper concludes that this recent investment surge may yield net benefits for Indonesia, provided the country continues to adhere to sound macroeconomic and export-promoting policies. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 89-128 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | - |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 3-28 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The vey success of Indonesia`s restructuring towards a non-oil economy has created major challenges. From relatively low growth in the mid-1980s, GDP expansion reached over 7% in 1989 and 1990. Direct investment, both foreign and domestic, accelerated, sucking in imports of equipment and raw materials, and putting pressure on the balance of payments. Approvals for domestic investment doubled in value in both 1989/90 and 1990/91, while approvals for foreign direct investment jumped by 136% and 41% respectively. This has strained the capacity of infrastructure--power generation, telecommunications and transport. Fuelled by the investment and export boom and the growth of credit following a succession of deregulation measures, inflation reached 9.5% in 1990. It has remained high in 1991. Pressure on the current account has continued. In response to a worse than expected current account deficit, the government has increasingly tightened monetary policy to keep inflation at the single digit level and to choke off imports. This is now having its impact, keeping interest rates high and reducing economic activity. At an annualised rate, bank credit to the private sector from January to May 1991 grew at only 25%, compared with nearly 60% in 1990. Attention has now focused on foreign debt and the afforbadility of major projects, both government and private-- the so-called `megaprojects`. Strong expansion, especially of large private sector investments in manufacturing, has caused private debt to rise sharply. The public debt service ratio (the ratio of public debt service to exports) has been falling. But the private debt service ratio is expected to jump from 6% in 1990/91 to nearly 11% in 1991/92. Thus the total public and private debt service ratio for 1991/92 will be about 34% up from 30% in 1990/91. A team of Ministers was established in September to supervise foreign commercial borrowings for government-related projects. It will accord priorities to projects, will seek to prevent bidding up of the terms of loans and overlending caused by the blurring of the distinction between official and private loans. This measure is appropriate for the short term. It highlights concern that care must to taken to control debt service obligations. But it is regulatory in nature. As such, it addresses the consequences of present policy settings. The strengthening of fiscal instruments is now necessary, to share the load with monetary policy. Foreign aid will play a significant role until the end of the decade despite Indonesia`s strong growth and diversification. Development funds, mainly from the multilateral development banks and Japan, will focus on infrastructure and on human resource development, a critical need as demand rises for technical and management skills. Infrastructure projects will be given priority over other needs such as two-step loans for the private sector. As Indonesia`s economy advances, concessionality of foreign development funding will decline further. The writing is on the wall, providing the impetus to strengthen fiscal instruments, to lift mobilisation of domestic savings and to continue steps to deregulate trade and industry. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 29-54 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | The problems of transforming smallholder tree crops from traditional low-yielding to modern high-yielding technology are examined, using a meta production function approach to analyse the changes. The role of government in transformation is considered, and various `individual` and block` improvement schemes implemented since the 1950s are analysed. Many of these schemes have not been successful owing to poor planning and inadequate managerial and financial support, and their coverage has been small in relation to the huge areas needing improvement. The paper suggests a more modest` dispersal` approach to transformation, concerned with setting up nurseries to provide better quality planting material and advice to individual farmers. But even this revised approach should be carefully planned and executed in light of previous mistakes, if it is to have widespread impact. |
| Nama Pengarang | : | Clark, David H., Mayling Oey-Gardiner, Colin Barlow, Thomas Tomich, Ross Muir, Hill, Hal, Thee, Kian Wie |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Nomor Edisi | : | - |
| Nomor Halaman | : | 129-141 |
| Abstraksi Narasi | : | To compensate for low civil service incomes, most lecturers at Indonesia`s public universities hold one or more other jobs. The career path of the typical lecturer is away from teaching: the higher the classification the greater is the number of outside jobs and the smaller is the time devoted to undergraduate teaching. In effect, public universities cannot now compete for the time of their lecturers. Indonesia has been attempting to increase the quality of undergraduate education by investing in further education of lecturers. Our findings show that such efforts will be futile unless concomitant changes are also made on the demand side. |
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