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The Impact Of Special Economic Zones And Government Intervention On Firm Productivity: The Case Of Batam, Indonesia
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| Pengarang | : | Aritenang, Andrew F.,Chandramidi, Aryani N. |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 56 (No. 2) |
| Halaman | : | 225-249 |
| Abstrak | : | Various studies have explored the effects of industrial agglomeration and special economic zones (SEZs) in Asia, but there has been a lack of data-driven analysis of SEZ performance. This paper provides a case study on batam, which has been developed as an SEZ through government-to-government (G2G) cooperation, offering lessons for other developing countries. The study examines the effects of industrial zones, foreign investment and government intervention on firm productivity, using an ex-post evaluation method and econometric models. The paper does not find conclusive evidence that Batam's Status as an SE affects firm productivity and growth. Although firm agglomeration proves beneficial for firm productivity, it is not clear that SEZ policy has driven this productivity. The paper argues that government policies should stimulate innovation and inter-firm cooperation to increase knowledge spillovers and technology transfer instead of focusing in attracting investment. |
Intragenerational Economic Mobility In Indonesia: A Transition From Poverty To The Middle Class In 1993-2014
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 56 (No. 2) |
| Halaman | : | 193-224 |
| Abstrak | : | Economic mobility, especially through expansion of the middle class, will dominate the future of Indonesia's development agenda. Based on data from five waves of the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), we found that (1) poverty decreased significantly between 1993 and 2014 from 86.1% to 20.2, while the middle class grew by almost nin times; (2) 34.4% of the poor moved into the middle class, but 11.9% were still categorised as chronically poor; (3) 42.3% of the middle class did not move into the upper class; (4) the middle and upper classes are vulnerable and easily fall into the lower classes. Our econometric estimations confirm that the drivers of economic mobility are educational attainment, formal employment, water and electricity supply, land ownership, and health investment. These findings suggest that investment in human and physical capital are two man strategiess to expand the middle class. |
Estimating The Impact Of Covid-19 On Poverty In Indonesia
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 56 (No. 2) |
| Halaman | : | 175-192 |
| Abstrak | : | Covid-19 has infected and will continue to infect millions of people all over the world. The economic impact is predicted to be large and millions of people will be pushed into poverty. In this paper, we estimate the impact of Covid-19 on poverty in Indonesia. The economic impact is expected to be severe, reducing the economic growth rate projected for 2020 from about 5% to between 4.2% and –3.5%. We find that under the best-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase from 9.2% in September 2019 to 9.7% by the end of 2020, pushing 1.3 million more people into poverty. Under the worst-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase to 16.6%, close to the level seen in 2004 when the poverty rate was 16.7%. This means that 19.7 million more people will become poor, substantially reversing Indonesia’s progress in reducing poverty. The implication is that Indonesia will need to expand its social protection programs to assist the new poor as well as the existing poor. |
Indonesia In The Time Of Covid-19
| Pengarang | : | Olivia, Susan,Gibson, John,Nasrudin, Rus`an |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 56 (No. 2) |
| Halaman | : | 143-174 |
| Abstrak | : | The Covid-19 virus has spread across the world with alarming speed, infecting millions and causing economic disruption on an unprecedented scale. In this survey, we examine the impact of the outbreak onthe indonesian economy as well as the government's response to the public health crisis and its provisions for the emerging economic crisis. Indonesia's delay in responding to the health crisis while Covid-19 spread in the neighbouring countries in January-February 2020 has been costly for the health of the population. The government's policy responses have so far been aimed at steadying the ship, addressing both the needs for the poor and the potentially poor (vulnerable) groups. At the time of writing, Covid-19 had not been tamed in Indonesia by any means. Hence, its implications for economic growth, jobs and welfare remain uncertain, as policy discussions were all about opening up the economy from virus-imposed restriction across the country, under what has been termed the 'new normal' |
Real Exchange Rate Misalignment And Currency Crises
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 56 (No. 3) |
| Halaman | : | 345-362 |
| Abstrak | : | This article calculates the real exchange rate misalignment (RERM) of the rupiah to examine the role of misalignment in exchange rate crises in Indonesia. The article does this by employing an autoregressive regime-switching model and behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach. The findings are as follows. First, net foreign assets and the relative productivity differential between sectors significantly influence the equilibrium exchange rate, indicating that external and internal balance determine the behaviour of the rupiah in the long run. Second, the BEER approach can properly predict misalignment of the rupiah, especiallly through explaining overvaluation periods of the rupiah before the Asian financial crisis. The regime-switching model performs well in identifying episodes of stability and volatility in the rupiah. Third, of the 17 crisis episodes experienced in INdonesia in 1981-2012, 10 were preceded by high RERM.\ |
Direct And Indirect Effects of Covid-19 on Life Expectancy And Poverty In Indonesia
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 56 (No. 3) |
| Halaman | : | 325-344 |
| Abstrak | : | The spread and threat of Covid-19 have resulted in unprecedented economic and public health responses in Indonesia and elsewhere. We analyse the direct and indirect effects of Covid-19 on life expectancy and poverty in Indonesia, and the responses to the virus. We view life expectancy and poverty as indicators of quantity and quality of life. Our analysis shows that the indirect effects on life expectancy, which operate through lower future income, exceed the direct effects of Covid-19-related deaths by at least five orders of magnitude. The reduction in long-run real income due to the Covid-19 shock may reduce life expectancy by up to 1.7 years, compared with what could otherwise be expected. In contrast, even if the Covid-19 death toll to date were 40 times worse, life expectancy would fall by just two days. Given this imbalance between direct and indirect effects, any interventions to reduce the risk of Covid-19 must be finely targeted and must consider indirect effects. Our analysis of the geographic pattern of poverty effects, which is based on near real-time mobility data, discusses how targeted interventions that are less fiscally costly could be developed. Such interventions should pose less of a threat to future growth and may help to reduce the indirect effects of the Covid-19 shock. |
Jokowi In The Covid-19 Era: Repressive Pluralism, Dynasticism And The Overbearing State
| Pengarang | : | Fealy, Greg |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 56 (No. 3) |
| Halaman | : | 301-323 |
| Abstrak | : | The Covid-19 pandemic has thrown President Joko Widodo’s second-term plans into disarray. Jokowi’s aspiration for dramatically accelerated development between 2019 and 2024 to secure his legacy as a transformative president now appears unachievable. As he has grappled with managing the pandemic and salvaging key parts of his agenda, he has consistently prioritised the economy over public health, and has also abandoned commitments to uphold or strengthen an array of political and civil rights that are crucial to the quality of Indonesian democracy. He has allowed the military and intelligence services to greatly expand their role in public life, and his government has, in the name of defending Indonesian pluralism, initiated discriminatory measures against sections of the Islamist community, which the government sees as sectarian and intolerant. The president’s reformist credentials have also been dented by Jokowi’s decision to support the nominations of his son and son-in-law in mayoral elections in two major cities, bringing accusations of dynasticism and elitism. |
Indonesia Under The New Normal: Challenges And The Way Ahead
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 56 (No. 3) |
| Halaman | : | 269-299 |
| Abstrak | : | As the Covid-19 crisis deepened in 2020, President Joko Widodo announced that Indonesia should prepare for the ‘new normal’. But when social distancing restrictions were relaxed in June to encourage economic recovery, the virus was not yet contained in Indonesia. Since then, the rate of infection has been rising faster than in many neighbouring countries. The pandemic has hit the economy hard, with a 5.3% reduction in GDP in the second quarter, the worst economic slump since 1998. In this Survey, we look at how Indonesia is preparing for the new normal. We argue that the government is focused on short-term recovery and does not have a clear strategy to address the medium-and longer-term implications of Covid-19. The response to the virus relies on public compliance to public health measures. There is a clear lack of emphasis on reducing the rate of infection through effective testing and tracing and enforcing social distancing and mobility restrictions. The government has developed an economic recovery plan that concentrates on cushioning the short-term impact of the crisis and supporting the poor and near-poor, rather than reducing long-term poverty and preventing structural changes in unemployment. Finally, we find that the pandemic is undermining the long-term financial sustainability of Indonesia’s social health insurance system. The education sector is reasonably prepared for extended school closures and distance learning. Yet there is no strategy to address the accumulated learning losses resulting from this crisis. As the Covid-19 crisis deepened in 2020, President Joko Widodo announced that Indonesia should prepare for the ‘new normal’. But when social distancing restrictions were relaxed in June to encourage economic recovery, the virus was not yet contained in Indonesia. Since then, the rate of infection has been rising faster than in many neighbouring countries. The pandemic has hit the economy hard, with a 5.3% reduction in GDP in the second quarter, the worst economic slump since 1998. In this Survey, we look at how Indonesia is preparing for the new normal. We argue that the government is focused on short-term recovery and does not have a clear strategy to address the medium-and longer-term implications of Covid-19. The response to the virus relies on public compliance to public health measures. There is a clear lack of emphasis on reducing the rate of infection through effective testing and tracing and enforcing social distancing and mobility restrictions. The government has developed an economic recovery plan that concentrates on cushioning the short-term impact of the crisis and supporting the poor and near-poor, rather than reducing long-term poverty and preventing structural changes in unemployment. Finally, we find that the pandemic is undermining the long-term financial sustainability of Indonesia’s social health insurance system. The education sector is reasonably prepared for extended school closures and distance learning. Yet there is no strategy to address the accumulated learning losses resulting from this crisis. |
Reducing Fuel Subsidies And Financing Road Infrastructure in Indonesia: A Financial Computable General Equilibrium Model
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 57 (No. 1) |
| Halaman | : | 111-133 |
| Abstrak | : | This article analyses whether government policies that reallocate funding for fuel subsidies to investment in transport infrastructure improve economic growth and income distribtion. We develop a financial computable general equilibrium model to simulate yhe fiscal policies that reduce fuel subsidies to finance road investment. The novelty of this article is a dyanmic model that covers multiple sectors, households, economic actors, assets and labour types. We find that reallocating fuel subsidy funding to infrastructure investment positively affects economic growth but adversely affects equality. We also find that investing in infrastructure through bank loans results in better economic growth and income distribution than reallocating subsidy funding does. Lastly, we find that investing in transport infrastructure through tax revenue can improve welfare, economic growth and income ditribution. |
Health Insurance For The Poor, Healthcare Use And Health Outcomes in Indonesia
| Pengarang | : | Shrestha, Ranjan |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 57 (No. 1) |
| Halaman | : | 85-110 |
| Abstrak | : | This article evaluates the effects of the Health Insurances for the Poor program, askeskin, using panel data from 2000 and 2007 rounds of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS). Because Askes,in was not assigned for the recipients randomly, difference-in-diffference propensity score matching is used to estimate the treatment effects of the program on the healthcare use. The results suggest heterogenous effects across age, gender and poverty status. The overall use of outpatients healthcare increases primarily among females. the use of inpatients healthcare increased the most among elderly ,males, with no significant increase observed among elderly females. While the increase in the use of outpatient was larger for the poor, the increase in the use of inpatient healthcare was larger for the non-poor, especially in rural areas. Although healthcare use increased among Askeskin recipients, the results suggest no significant improvements in health outcomes. |