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The Impact of Covid-19 And Social Protection Programs on Poverty in Indonesia
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| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 57 (No. 3) |
| Halaman | : | 267-296 |
| Abstrak | : | Covid-19 Remained the largest challenge for the Indonesian economy in 2021. In particular, Covid-19 case numbers hit a ew high aof about 50,000 cases per day in mid-July. In response, the government increased the contact tracing and testing of suspected positive cases, expanded its Covid-19 vaccination drive and introduced stricter mobility and activity restriction (PPKM Darurat/PPKM Levels 1-4). By the end of October, more than 57% of the target population had received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine. The economy also improved in the first half of 2021. Building on the trough in GDP in the second quarter of 2020, economic growth returned in the second and third quarters of 2021 after contractions in the previous four quarters. Macroeconomic circumstances were also generally favourable, though significant longer-term risks remain. In terms of real wages, however, the recovery tended to benefit the formal sector and well-educated workers, while real wages in the informal sector and for low-educated workers continued to decline. At the same time, the rise in Covid-19 cases and the implementation of stricter mobility and activity restrictions have lowered expectations for economic growth in the second half of 2021. To mitigate the social and economic impact of the pandemic, the government has re-expanded its social protection programs. We find that these programs have mitigated the impact of Covid-19 on the poverty rate by four percentage points, or by about three-quarters—poverty increased to nearly 10%, rather than the 14% that would have been likely without the increased social assistance. The possibility of a K-shaped recovery implies that special social protection programs must continue as the economy recovers from the pandemic, to ensure that the poor and vulnerable are not left behind. |
Wagner's Law And The Dynamics of Government Spending in Indonesia
| Pengarang | : | Hsin-Yi Changa |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 58 (No. 1) |
| Halaman | : | 79-95 |
| Abstrak | : | The empirical relationship between public expenditure and economic growth can be analysed from different viewpoints. This study focuses on the empirical testing of the validity of Wagner’s law for the Indonesian economy. The high economic growth in the sample period of 1980–2014 makes the law likely to be applicable to Indonesia. Causality and cointegration techniques are used. A key finding in our vector autoregression analysis is unidirectional causality running from GDP and price to government expenditure, supporting Wagner’s law. In the case of price and government expenditure, this study also finds evidence of a long-run cointegrating relationship, which appears stable and supports unidirectional causality. The vast majority of the deviations from the equilibrium relationship between government expenditure and price are found to be transitory shocks to government expenditure. Most deviations also appear significantly countercyclical to economic activity, suggesting that government expenditure does play a role in economic stabilisation. |
Factors of Budget Delay: Local Government Capacity, Bargaining And Political Interaction In Indonesia
| Pengarang | : | Vidyattama, Yogi,Sutiyono, Wahyu |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 58 (No. 1) |
| Halaman | : | 55-77 |
| Abstrak | : | Rapid decentralisation in indonesia has shifted responsibility for managing sub-stantial public funding from national to district governments and increased the importance of local government at the district level in delivering public services. Local government budget delays have become a huge problem as they not only delay the government's delivery of services but also reduce it's functional capacity. Our research assesses problems of budget delay in Indonesian districts. Three districts wwere chosen as case studies for interviews and group discussion. The research finds that human capacity and administrative problems have slowed the development and enactment of budgets. Moreover, efforts to keep elcetion promises, especially to develop infrastructure, have not only brought lengthy process of bargaining for economic and financial resources but also undermined the participatory budget process. this has been intensified by poor political interaction, as shown in the three case studies. |
The Status of Palm Oil Under The European Union's Renewable Energy Directives: Sustainability or Protectionism?
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 58 (No. 1) |
| Halaman | : | 31-54 |
| Abstrak | : | According to the European Union’s recast Renewable Energy Directive (RED II), the EU aims to phase out feedstock biofuels that involve high indirect land-use change (ILUC) by 2030, which includes crude palm oil only. Indonesia, the world’s leading producer of crude palm oil, contests this regulation, claiming that the classification of biofuels as being produced with high- or low-risk ILUC is discriminatory and inherently protectionist. This study examines the critical ambiguities of protectionism and sustainability, using a legal framework to empirically ascertain the nature of RED II and Indonesia’s institutional response. Southeast Asian palm oil and European vegetable oils (such as rapeseed and sunflower oils) are considered ‘like products’ under World Trade Organization criteria that emphasise product-related process and production methods. RED II has the potential to qualify for exemptions under GATT article XX. However, the extraterritoriality of RED II, which aims to reduce emissions, is contested, as is the unilateral nature of the ILUC risk measurements. |
Agriculture, Development And Sustainability In The Covid-19 Era
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 58 (No. 1) |
| Halaman | : | 1-30 |
| Abstrak | : | Domestic and international mobility restrictions helped to reduce the numbers of confirmed covid-19 cases until the end of 2021. Indonesia entered 2022 with caution, however, as omicron cases began to rise. recent succes in managing the pandemic has coincided with what might be the start of an economic recovery, in no smallpart driven by high commodity prices--mainly for coal and palm oil--improving the fiscal and trade balances. The new tax harmonization law is intended to lower fiscal deficit to less than 3% of GDP by 2023, and a carbon tax will be implemented in April 2022--starting with a cap-and-tax scheme for coal power plants, before more sectors are included. Agriculture has played a key role in helping indonesia to weather the pandemic, with yhe sectors's growth supporting employment and food consumption during the crisis. A resurgence in the palm oil price, together with rising agricultural wages and a narrowing of the labour productivity gap, has helped the agriculture sector lead the recovery, but concerns remain over the sector's environmental footprint. Againts recent food and environmental policy commitments, a renewed focus on increasing on-farm yields is a critical area for policy. We conclude with some reflections on the national palm oil replanting program and how better benefits might be delivered for smallholders and the environment. |
Reducing Agricultural Income Vulnerabilities Through Agroforestry Training: Evidence From a Randomised Field Experiment In Indonesia
| Pengarang | : | Pratiwi, Ayu,Suzuki, Aya |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 55 (No. 1) |
| Halaman | : | 87-120 |
| Abstrak | : | Although agroforestry is recognised as a means to stabilise farm income, little work has been done to differentiate farmers based on their incomes, their capacity to diversify crops, and the economic outcomes of agroforestry adoption. By distinguishing between high- and low-income farmers, this paper examines how agricultural training affects agroforestry promotion, and evaluates its relevance for the poor, the extent of its adoption, and its economic consequences. We found that although training generally increased participants’ knowledge of agroforestry, it increased crop diversity only for low-income participants. We also detected the presence of information spillovers from participants to non-participants, which may increase crop diversity among non-participants and consequently reduce the measurable impact of training. When income heterogeneity is considered, we found that the low-income participants benefited more from increasing their incomes and expanding their social networks than the higher-income participants. We also found that agroforestry adoption helped to reduce income volatility. |
In Data We Trust? An Analysis Of Indonesian Socioeconomic Survey Data
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 55 (No. 1) |
| Halaman | : | 65-86 |
| Abstrak | : | W hat if a popular dataset has generated a large amount of literature has been misunderstood and has been misleading inferences? This paper examines household expenditure data from Indonesiam National Socio-economic Survey (SUSENAS), which strted more than 50 years ago. Appropriate use of susenans data for policy analysis requires an understanding that the survey's expenditure variable does not measure true out-of-pocket expenses, because it includes subsidies received by household when obtaining goods and services. We also highlight an abrupt change in the survey instrument that occured in 2015, when the reference period for certain items was extende. For health items, this generated a change in expenditure series that can be misinterpreted as being the results of a social health insurance reform introduced in 2014 to lower the health care burden on household. Accordingly, wew propose a way to account for this artificial expenditure movement in Susenas. |
Risk,Resilience, and Reforms: Indonesia Financial System In 2019
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 55 (No. 1) |
| Halaman | : | 5-31 |
| Abstrak | : | Indonesia has managed the complex challenges of the global economy well. The country's capital outflows were smaller in 2018 than during the Taper Tantrum in 2013; the rupiah had regained most of its lost ground by January 2019; the Indonesian stock market has outperformed its peers; growth is forecast to remain stable; inflation is low; unemployment remains below its five-year average; consumer and business confidence are robust; and the government budget has improved through a smaller deficit and cheaper borrowing costs. But significant risks remain. This paper assesses these risks and evaluates the adequacy of Indonesia's crisis management framework. It finds that the framework has serious deficiencies that could see liquidity challenges become systemic solvency crises. The framework effectively removes Bank Indonesia as the lender of last resort, risks politicising the process of crisis response, and could mean slower, less effective responses to crises. This paper explores how the framework could be improved and what reforms could be undertaken to deepen Indonesia's financial system, strengthen financial resilience, and boost the long-term growth outlook. |
Early Experience and later Outcomes of Education: Schooling Transition Evidence From Indonesia
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Bies: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 55 (No. 1) |
| Halaman | : | 33-64 |
| Abstrak | : | This Paper investigates the effects of early school experience on later educational attainment. Using Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), we find that students who repeat a grade at primary school are less likely to progress to junior high school. We also find that grade retention is associated with lower rates of transition junior high school to senior high school. The relationship persist across years and samples. meanwhile, the age of students when starting school and the hours they spend there have limited effects on whether they continue their schooling. We also observe that the effects of parental education and household income on the transition of students from primary school to junior high school are weakening. given the ong-term impact of grade retention, policymakers should be cautious when recommending it for underachieving childrenj and should look for alternatives. |
Statistical Accuracy of iPad Applications: An Initial Examination
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The American Statistician |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 67 (No. 2) |
| Halaman | : | 105-108 |
| Abstrak | : | With the recent advent of the iPad, statistics-related applications (apps) have begun development. Given their newness, statistical accuracy is a concern. This study assessed the accuracy of the following iPad apps: Data Explorer, StatsMate, Statistics Visualizer, and TC-Stats. Early and recent versions of Excel were also included for comparative purposes. Accuracy was considered in two ways. First, the National Institute of Standards and Technology Statistical Reference Datasets (StRD) were used to benchmark accuracy. Analyses included univariate summary statistics (means, standard deviations), analysis of variance (ANOVA; F statistics), and linear regression (regression coefficients, standard deviations). The log relative error was computed for each dataset (comparing the “certified” values from StRD against the app actual values). Second, Wilkinson's tests were conducted to assess app “pass” rates (rounding, scatterplot, univariate, regression, overall). The results suggest the following: (a) the most accurate app for summary statistics and for lower difficulty ANOVA datasets was StatsMate, (b) the most accurate app for average difficulty ANOVA datasets was Data Explorer, (c) no app was accurate for higher difficulty ANOVA datasets, (d) only Data Explorer could handle most regression models, and (e) Wilkinson pass rates for Data Explorer (79%) and StatsMate (58%) were highest. Overall, StatsMate compares favorably to Excel 97, early versions being similarly accurate. Much remains to be done to improve the statistical accuracy of these apps. |