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A Note on Priors for the Multinomial Model
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| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The American Statistician |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 71 (No. 4) |
| Halaman | : | 298-301 |
| Abstrak | : | An “overall objective” prior proposed for the multinomial model is shown to be inadequate in the presence of zero counts. An earlier proposed reference prior for when interest is in a particular category suffers from similar problems. It is argued that there is no need to deviate from the uniform prior proposed by Jeffreys, for which links with a non-Bayesian approach, when prediction is of interest, are shown. |
A Note on High-Dimensional Linear Regression With Interactions
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The American Statistician |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 71 (No. 4) |
| Halaman | : | A Note on |
| Abstrak | : | The problem of interaction selection in high-dimensional data analysis has recently received much attention. This note aims to address and clarify several fundamental issues in interaction selection for linear regression models, especially when the input dimension p is much larger than the sample size n. We first discuss how to give a formal definition of “importance” for main and interaction effects. Then we focus on two-stage methods, which are computationally attractive for high-dimensional data analysis but thus far have been regarded as heuristic. We revisit the counterexample of Turlach and provide new insight to justify two-stage methods from the theoretical perspective. In the end, we suggest new strategies for interaction selection under the marginality principle and provide some simulation results. |
Strategi Politik Luar Negeri lndonesia terhadap Kawasan Afrika
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Analisis CSIS |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 37 (No. 3) |
| Halaman | : | 406-423 |
| Abstrak | : | Kedekatan sosio-historis lndonesia dengan Af"rika dan dampak globalisasi terhadap kawasan Aftika menjadi alasan lndonesia untuk memberi perhatian pada perkembangan kawasan Aftika secara lebih teratur. Meski dampak globalisasi itu telah melahirkan kecenderungan-kecenderungan baru di Afrika, namun kecenderungan itu tidak mengakhiri isu-isu klasik kawasan seperti, kemiskinan, kelaparan dan konflik. lndonesia yang dinilai kehadirannya di kautasan Aftika menurun dalam sepuluh tahun terakhir ini, dapat menjadi bagian penting dalam proses pembangunan di Afrika. Untuk itu politik luar negeri lndonesia terhadap Afrika dituntut untuk lebih inoaatif, proaktif dan kreatif saat Afrika di masa dEan membutuhkan kerja sama internasional secara berkelanjutan |
Perwira Ksatria: Fenomena Profesionalisme TNI
| Pengarang | : | Effendi, Muhadjir |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Analisis CSIS |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 37 (No. 3) |
| Halaman | : | 381 - 405 |
| Abstrak | : | Tulisan ini menguraikan fenomena yang terjadi terkait dengan reformasi internal di tubuh ABRIITNI menuju tentara profesional. Metode fenomenologi digunakan untuk memahami makna subyektif profesionalisme di kalangan perwira menengah TNI AD. "Tentara Profesional" menurut pemahaman para perwira bukanlah ciri jati diri TNI yang otentik. Ciri-ciri jati diri TNI yang otentik adalah "tentara rakyat", "tentart pejuang", dan "tentara nasional". Tugas pokok TNI dan semua doktrin-doktrin normatif TNI bersumber dari jati diri TNl. Sedang jati diri tersebut memiliki akar yang sangat kuat di dalam tradisi dan budaya keprajuritan khas Indonesia yang bersumber dari nilai nilai "ksatria". |
Praktik Defense Offsef di lndonesia
| Pengarang | : | Muradi |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Analisis CSIS |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 37 (No. 3) |
| Halaman | : | 362- 380 |
| Abstrak | : | Defense offset adalah proses pembelian atau inuestasi timbal balik yang disepaknti oleh produsen atau pemasok persenjataan sebagai imbalan dari kesepakatan pembelian jasa dan barang-barang militer. Praktik defense offset dalam pengadaan alat pertahanan memberikan satu perspektif bahwa transfer teknologi pertahanan yang didukung mekanisme defense oflset harus ditopang dengan kesiapan sumber daya manusia, anggaran, bahan baku, serta lembaga penelitian dan pengembangan yang dapat memudahkan proses alih teknologi tersebut sehingga mampu memenuhi kebutuhan alat pertahanan. |
Development of carbon pricing policy in indonesia: challenges and future outlook
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The Indonesian Quarterly |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 51 (No. 4) |
| Halaman | : | 43-64 |
| Abstrak | : | Carbon pricing has emerged as a pivotal tool in the global efforts against climate change, providing economic incentives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions while fostering sustainable development. Indonesia pledged to reduce emissions by 31.8% below BaU (Business as Usual) levels by 2030, potentially increasing to 43.2% through international cooperation. In line with these commitments, Indonesia has introduced carbon pricing policies for climate mitigation. However, these policies encounter various challenges, including from the low price of carbon in Indonesia. This paper conducts a policy analysis of carbon pricing in Indonesia, assessing its development, implementation mechanisms, and future outlook. By assessing current policies, this study aims to offer insights into how Indonesia can optimize the effectiveness of its carbon pricing initiatives. |
Strategi Pertahanan Indonesia di Masa Depa
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Analisis CSIS |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 37 (No. 3) |
| Halaman | : | 347-361 |
| Abstrak | : | Tulisan ini menguraikan pilihan strategi pertahanan Indonesia yang releaan untuk dikembangkan berupa penangkalan yang akan dicapai melalui pertahanan berlapis. Strategi pertahanan berlapis, pertama mencakup area pertahanan yang merupakan mandala peperangan secara beilapis, dimana kekuatan militer merupakan kekuatan inti yang didukung oleh kekuatan cadangan dan pendukung. Kedua, pertahanan berlapis juga harus diartikan sebagai sistem pertahanan yang mencakup aspek-aspek non-militer, yaitu sistem politik, termasuk diplomasi, ekonomi dan sosial budaya sebagai kekuatnn tangkal pertahanan Indonesia. Kedua konsepsi pertahanan berlapis ini sangat releaan bagi lndonesia karena sifat multidimensional ancaman yang dihadapi oleh Indonesia. |
Krisis di Rusia, Perkembangan Regional di Kawasan Asia Pasifik dan Prospek Hubungan China-Taiwan
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Analisis CSIS |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 37 (No. 3) |
| Halaman | : | 327-346 |
| Abstrak | : | - |
Asean's regional divide: an analysis of the response of maritime and mainland southeast asian nations to regional challenges
| Pengarang | : | Farras, M. F. |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | The Indonesian Quarterly |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 51 (No. 4) |
| Halaman | : | 23-42 |
| Abstrak | : | The conclusion of the 43rd ASEAN Summit brought with it a renewed sense of hope regarding ASEAN's willingness to move towards an integrated Southeast Asia and a stronger response to the challenges the region faces. Despite the general expression of optimism for the idea of ASEAN Centrality, ASEAN continues to be divided on multiple sensitive issues. The Myanmar Crisis and the South China Sea issue present two litmus tests that paints a somber picture of the current state of Southeast Asian geopolitics. Calling into question ASEAN unity and its relevance. This article attempts to explore this issue of a fractured ASEAN by exploring a division based upon diverging security priorities between Mainland and Maritime Southeast Asia. Through this analysis, the article aims to understand whether geographical differences are a key variable in impeding unity and if it is one that is simply irreconcilable. The article finds that there are observable differences in the responses between the two regions with geography being influential in dictating the degree of pragmatism employed by a country through its function as a natural barrier or a cause for dependency. Despite these unchangeable realities, the paper argues that unity may still be achieved, but only if ASEAN countries are able to realign their collective security priorities to address the concerns of both the Mainland and Maritime regions. The paper concludes by advocating for more analysis of ASEAN, not through the lens of Great Power politics, but by paying due regard to the agency and ability of ASEAN member states to truly understand key sources of differences that have become a feature of ASEAN regionalism. Keywords: ASEAN, Southeast Asian Geopolitics, Myanmar Crisis, South China Sea |
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Tengah Krisis Finans
| Pengarang | : | - |
| Nama Majalah/Jurnal | : | Analisis CSIS |
| Volume / Edisi | : | 37 (No. 3) |
| Halaman | : | 317-326 |
| Abstrak | : | - |